Navy
2-0·American Athletic· Elo 1553
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY | 7 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 42 |
| TLSA | 14 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 23 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TLSA Elo 1043, NAVY Elo 1553) plus home-field advantage. That projects TLSA +18 (9% to win) — 4.5 points of value on NAVY versus the market line of +13.5.
NAVY up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Navy 42, Tulsa 23.
Yes — the model's pick (NAVY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had NAVY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 7 Blake Horvath fumbled, recovered by TLSA Devin Robinson
Charles Robinson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 20
Blake Horvath run for 15 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST down
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →