Navy vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NAVYTeam statsTLSA
- Q4 6:08TLSACalvin Johnson II 18 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)42–23
- Q4 9:07NAVYBrandon Chatman 1 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)42–17
- Q3 2:05NAVYAlex Tecza 1 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)35–17
- Q3 11:09NAVYEli Heidenreich 10 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)28–17
- Q2 0:10NAVYLuke Hutchison 2 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)21–17
- Q2 1:44TLSASeth Morgan 34 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 5:50NAVYBlake Horvath 2 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)14–14
- Q1 0:26NAVYAlex Tecza 1 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:53TLSABaylor Hayes 6 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:07TLSADominic Richardson 14 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBlake Horvath 6/10, 94 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushBlake Horvath 21 CAR, 159 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEli Heidenreich 2 REC, 40 YDS
- PassBaylor Hayes 22/37, 189 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDominic Richardson 13 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- RecZion Booker 8 REC, 90 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNAVY up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 2:53TLSA +19%
Baylor Hayes run for 6 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
- Q1 0:26NAVY +19%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
- Q2 5:50NAVY +17%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
- Q2 0:10NAVY +16%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Luke Hutchison for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
- Q2 1:44TLSA +13%
Seth Morgan 34 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 12:07TLSA +12%
Dominic Richardson run for 14 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Navy vs. Tulsa?
Navy 42, Tulsa 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NAVY) was correct.
| NAVY | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 461 | Total yards | 329 |
| 94 | Passing yards | 189 |
| 367 | Rushing yards | 140 |
| 25 | First downs | 23 |
| 8-13 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 6/10 | Comp/Att | 22/37 |
| 9.4 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-39 | Penalties | 4-29 |
| 35:24 | Possession | 24:36 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:25 TLSA go for it on 4th & 6 at TLSA 45. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.16 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:08TLSACalvin Johnson II 18 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)42–23
- Q4 9:07NAVYBrandon Chatman 1 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)42–17
- Q3 2:05NAVYAlex Tecza 1 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)35–17
- Q3 11:09NAVYEli Heidenreich 10 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)28–17
- Q2 0:10NAVYLuke Hutchison 2 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)21–17
- Q2 1:44TLSASeth Morgan 34 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 5:50NAVYBlake Horvath 2 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)14–14
- Q1 0:26NAVYAlex Tecza 1 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:53TLSABaylor Hayes 6 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:07TLSADominic Richardson 14 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TLSA Elo 1043, NAVY Elo 1553 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TLSA +18 (13% to win) — 4.5 points clear of NAVY's market line of +13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNavy leads 9–2 · Navy has won 3 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| NAVY | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.3 (#43) | CORE overall | -8.2 (#90) |
| +13 / +3 | offense / defense | -8 / +0 |
| 3.12 | points / drive | 1.91 |
| 2.74 | allowed / drive | 2.62 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -20 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →