Morgan State vs. South Alabama: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Morgan State

0021

South Alabama

▸0038

Final

Hancock Whitney Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MORG	7	0	7	7	21
USA	7	10	7	14	38

MORGTeam statsUSA

326Total yards367

159Pass174

167Rush193

17First downs19

5-133rd down2-8

4Turnovers1

22:46Possession26:22

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:24MORGRandall Nauden 7 Yd Run (Sahr Gbundema Kick)21–38
• Q4 7:47USADevin Voisin 31 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)14–38
• Q4 9:27USAKentrel Bullock 2 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)14–31
• Q3 4:13MORGJason Collins Jr. 3 Yd Run (Sahr Gbundema Kick)14–24
• Q3 10:17USAPJ Martin 3 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)7–24
• Q2 0:29USAAnthony Eager 19 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)7–17
• Q2 12:54USAHamilton DiBoyan 23 Yd Field Goal 7–10
• Q1 5:01USAKentrel Bullock 1 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)7–7
• Q1 8:36MORGJason Collins Jr. 2 Yd Run (Sahr Gbundema Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

USA −28.5

Against the number

MORG covered

line USA −28.5

What the numbers say

• MORG played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 4.1

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MORG aheadUSA ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MORG ahead, below = USA ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

USA −28.5

Closing total

51.0

Model line

—

Actual result

MORG 21 – 38 USA

Leaders

Morgan State

• PassKobe Muasau 14/22, 156 YDS, 1 INT
• RushJason Collins Jr. 24 CAR, 83 YDS, 2 TD
• RecJoseph Kennerly Jr. 2 REC, 34 YDS

South Alabama

• PassBishop Davenport 12/14, 166 YDS, 2 TD
• RushKentrel Bullock 23 CAR, 127 YDS, 2 TD
• RecDevin Voisin 7 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

19.4sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

129

Points / snap

0.46

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

USA up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

88%

USA went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WJacksonville State vs UTEP17-14WMichigan State vs Central Michigan31-7LTexas Southern vs Prairie View A&M34-37WHouston vs UTSA17-14WChattanooga vs Kennesaw State27-20

Fourth downs

14 calls

USA gave up 1.4 points to the model on fourth down.MORG 6/6 · USA 4/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Morgan State vs. South Alabama?

Morgan State 21, South Alabama 38.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (USA) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MORG

USA

39%

Success rate

53%

0.20

EPA / pass

0.76

0.14

EPA / rush

0.18

35%

Early-down success

57%

31%

Pass success

56%

45%

Rush success

51%

11%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

30%

Stuffed rush rate

7%

44%

Pass rate

28%

8.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.1

MORG

8.8 yards to go on 3rd down

72 scrimmage snaps

USA

4.1 yards to go on 3rd down

57 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MORG		USA
326	Total yards	367
159	Passing yards	174
167	Rushing yards	193
17	First downs	19
5-13	3rd down	2-8
2-2	4th down	1-2
15/25	Comp/Att	13/15
6.4	Yards per pass	11.6
4.2	Yards per rush	4.7
4	Turnovers	1
10-61	Penalties	8-50
22:46	Possession	26:22

Fourth downs

14 calls

MORG

6/6 with the model

nothing given up

USA

4/7 with the model

−1.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 1:50 USA punt on 4th & 2 at USA 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.94 points.

Every call, priced (14)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MORG 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →USA 6/12 scoring drives

MORGTD11 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

USATD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

MORGPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

USAFUM6 pl, 39 yds· own 36Q1

MORGFUM2 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q1

USAFG5 pl, 13 yds· opp 18Q1

MORGINT5 pl, 36 yds· own 35Q2

MORGPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q2

USAEND3 pl, 19 yds· own 10Q2

USAPUNT3 pl, -13 yds· own 30Q2

MORGFUM7 pl, 17 yds· own 28Q2

USATD5 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q2

USATD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

MORGTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

USAPUNT4 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q3

MORGPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 8Q3

USAPUNT4 pl, 8 yds· opp 46Q3

MORGPUNT6 pl, 0 yds· own 8Q4

USATD2 pl, 4 yds· opp 4Q4

MORGFUM3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q4

USATD1 pl, 31 yds· opp 31Q4

MORGTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

USAEND5 pl, 18 yds· own 12Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:24MORGRandall Nauden 7 Yd Run (Sahr Gbundema Kick)21–38
• Q4 7:47USADevin Voisin 31 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)14–38
• Q4 9:27USAKentrel Bullock 2 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)14–31
• Q3 4:13MORGJason Collins Jr. 3 Yd Run (Sahr Gbundema Kick)14–24
• Q3 10:17USAPJ Martin 3 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)7–24
• Q2 0:29USAAnthony Eager 19 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)7–17
• Q2 12:54USAHamilton DiBoyan 23 Yd Field Goal 7–10
• Q1 5:01USAKentrel Bullock 1 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)7–7
• Q1 8:36MORGJason Collins Jr. 2 Yd Run (Sahr Gbundema Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →