Montana State vs. Oregon: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Montana State

0013

Oregon

▸0059

Final

Autzen Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MONT	0	3	3	7	13
ORE	17	21	14	7	59

MONTTeam statsORE

244Total yards506

198Pass253

46Rush253

17First downs29

3-123rd down7-10

0Turnovers0

29:55Possession30:08

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:22MONTAdam Jones 2 Yd Run (Myles Sansted Kick)13–59
• Q4 6:50OREJordon Davison 1 Yd Run (Gage Hurych Kick)6–59
• Q3 0:26OREJordon Davison 8 Yd Run (Gage Hurych Kick)6–52
• Q3 6:43OREGary Bryant Jr. 14 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)6–45
• Q3 10:14MONTMyles Sansted 42 Yd Field Goal 6–38
• Q2 0:03OREMalik Benson 11 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)3–38
• Q2 1:03MONTMyles Sansted 42 Yd Field Goal 3–31
• Q2 4:34ORENoah Whittington 1 Yd Run (Gage Hurych Kick)0–31
• Q2 11:08OREJordon Davison 2 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–24
• Q1 6:16OREAtticus Sappington 23 Yd Field Goal 0–17
• Q1 9:16OREKenyon Sadiq 20 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:57OREJayden Limar 16 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

ORE −28

Against the number

ORE covered

line ORE −28

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MONT aheadORE ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MONT ahead, below = ORE ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

ORE −28

Closing total

56.0

Model line

—

Actual result

MONT 13 – 59 ORE

Leaders

Montana State

• PassJustin Lamson 23/31, 198 YDS
• RushJulius Davis 5 CAR, 16 YDS
• RecTaco Dowler 12 REC, 107 YDS

Oregon

• PassDante Moore 18/23, 213 YDS, 3 TD
• RushNoah Whittington 10 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
• RecMalik Benson 5 REC, 51 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

29sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

124

Points / snap

0.58

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ORE up 46 entering the 4th quarter. Across 107 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

ORE went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WLSU vs Grambling72-10WRobert Morris vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg46-0WClemson vs App State66-20WButler vs Hanover College53-0WNorth Carolina Central vs Delaware State52-10

Fourth downs

13 calls

ORE gave up 0.1 points to the model on fourth down.MONT 10/10 · ORE 2/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Montana State vs. Oregon?

Montana State 13, Oregon 59.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MONT

ORE

43%

Success rate

64%

0.26

EPA / pass

0.79

-0.16

EPA / rush

0.53

47%

Early-down success

62%

50%

Pass success

63%

33%

Rush success

64%

7%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

17%

25%

Stuffed rush rate

10%

59%

Pass rate

41%

6.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.8

MONT

6.5 yards to go on 3rd down

58 scrimmage snaps

ORE

4.8 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MONT		ORE
244	Total yards	506
198	Passing yards	253
46	Rushing yards	253
17	First downs	29
3-12	3rd down	7-10
1-2	4th down	2-2
23/31	Comp/Att	19/25
6.4	Yards per pass	10.1
1.7	Yards per rush	6.5
0	Turnovers	0
7-54	Penalties	3-29
29:55	Possession	30:08

Fourth downs

13 calls

MONT

10/10 with the model

nothing given up

ORE

2/3 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 6:16 ORE field goal on 4th & 5 at MONT 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.07 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MONT 3/9 scoring drives← own end zone →ORE 9/10 scoring drives

ORETD6 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q1

MONTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 21Q1

ORETD3 pl, 40 yds· opp 40Q1

MONTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1

OREFG4 pl, 5 yds· opp 10Q1

MONTDOWNS8 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q1

ORETD12 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1

MONTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

ORETD10 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q2

MONTFG13 pl, 50 yds· own 25Q2

ORETD6 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q2

MONTFG9 pl, 51 yds· own 25Q3

ORETD6 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q3

MONTPUNT6 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3

ORETD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

MONTPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q3

ORETD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4

MONTTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

OREEND4 pl, 13 yds· own 24Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:22MONTAdam Jones 2 Yd Run (Myles Sansted Kick)13–59
• Q4 6:50OREJordon Davison 1 Yd Run (Gage Hurych Kick)6–59
• Q3 0:26OREJordon Davison 8 Yd Run (Gage Hurych Kick)6–52
• Q3 6:43OREGary Bryant Jr. 14 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)6–45
• Q3 10:14MONTMyles Sansted 42 Yd Field Goal 6–38
• Q2 0:03OREMalik Benson 11 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)3–38
• Q2 1:03MONTMyles Sansted 42 Yd Field Goal 3–31
• Q2 4:34ORENoah Whittington 1 Yd Run (Gage Hurych Kick)0–31
• Q2 11:08OREJordon Davison 2 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–24
• Q1 6:16OREAtticus Sappington 23 Yd Field Goal 0–17
• Q1 9:16OREKenyon Sadiq 20 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:57OREJayden Limar 16 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →