| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MINN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| OSU | 7 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (OSU Elo 2021, MINN Elo 1594) plus home-field advantage. That projects OSU -19.5 (93% to win) — 4.0 points of value on MINN versus the market line of -23.5.
OSU up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Minnesota 3, Ohio State 42.
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had OSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 49 yds to the MINN 31 for a 1ST down
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 48 yds to the MINN 33 for a 1ST down
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 44 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
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