Minnesota vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MINNTeam statsOSU
- Q4 3:49OSULincoln Kienholz 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–42
- Q4 14:55OSUJeremiah Smith 9 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–35
- Q3 5:45OSUBo Jackson 5 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–28
- Q2 8:04OSUCarnell Tate 44 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–21
- Q2 11:01OSUJeremiah Smith 6 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–14
- Q1 0:00OSUCJ Donaldson 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:05MINNBrady Denaburg 27 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MINN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.0 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassDrake Lindsey 15/26, 94 YDS
- RushFame Ijeboi 13 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecJameson Geers 1 REC, 25 YDS
- PassJulian Sayin 23/27, 326 YDS, 3 TD
- RushBo Jackson 13 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCarnell Tate 9 REC, 183 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:00OSU +10%
CJ Donaldson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
- Q2 11:01OSU +6%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 6 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Minnesota vs. Ohio State?
Minnesota 3, Ohio State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| MINN | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 162 | Total yards | 474 |
| 94 | Passing yards | 341 |
| 68 | Rushing yards | 133 |
| 11 | First downs | 21 |
| 1-11 | 3rd down | 7-10 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 15/26 | Comp/Att | 24/28 |
| 3.6 | Yards per pass | 12.2 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-15 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 28:08 | Possession | 31:52 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:41 MINN punt on 4th & 2 at MINN 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:49OSULincoln Kienholz 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–42
- Q4 14:55OSUJeremiah Smith 9 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–35
- Q3 5:45OSUBo Jackson 5 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–28
- Q2 8:04OSUCarnell Tate 44 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–21
- Q2 11:01OSUJeremiah Smith 6 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–14
- Q1 0:00OSUCJ Donaldson 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:05MINNBrady Denaburg 27 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OSU Elo 2021, MINN Elo 1594 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OSU -19.5 (89% to win) — 4.0 points clear of MINN's market line of -23.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOhio State leads 49–7 · Ohio State has won 14 straight · 25% have been one-possession games
| MINN | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.1 (#96) | CORE overall | +39.2 (#1) |
| -7 / +3 | offense / defense | +14 / -26 |
| 1.72 | points / drive | 3.43 |
| 2.38 | allowed / drive | 1.15 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 13% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →