Camp Randall StadiumClosing line: WIS -28.5 · WIS covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| WIS | 0 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 42 |
Team stats
MTSUthis game · better side highlightedWIS
241
Total yards
456208
Passing yards
28333
Rushing yards
17314
First downs
215-14 · 36%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WIS 1573
MTSU 1228
Projected spread
WIS -16.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
WIS
88% to win
Market spread
WIS -28.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
MTSU
12.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
88%
WIS · market 93%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WIS Elo 1573, MTSU Elo 1228) plus home-field advantage. That projects WIS -16.2 (88% to win) — 12.3 points of value on MTSU versus the market line of -28.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WIS (top)MTSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WIS 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- WIS pass offense (0.03 PPA) vs. MTSU pass defense (0.41 allowed) — edge MTSU.
- MTSU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. WIS pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge WIS.
- MTSU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. WIS rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge MTSU.
Drive-by-drive
MTSU 1/9 scoring drives← own end zone →WIS 5/8 scoring drives
WISPUNT8 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q1
MTSUFG12 pl, 68 yds· own 23Q1
WISPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WIS up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
WIS went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Middle Tennessee vs. Wisconsin?
Middle Tennessee 10, Wisconsin 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WIS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WIS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.