Michigan
4-1·Big Ten· Elo 1851
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 0 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| USC | 7 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USC Elo 1865, MICH Elo 1851) plus home-field advantage. That projects USC -3 (59% to win), essentially in line with the market.
USC up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Michigan 13, USC 31.
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had USC pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Andrew Marsh for 69 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
King Miller run for 49 yds to the MICH 19 for a 1ST down
Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Zeke Berry return for no gain to the MICH 4
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