Michigan vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MICHTeam statsUSC
- Q4 4:21USCBryan Jackson 29 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)13–31
- Q4 9:17MICHAndrew Marsh 69 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–24
- Q4 10:01USCRyon Sayeri 54 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q3 10:45USCKing Miller 15 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)7–21
- Q2 0:14USCMakai Lemon 12 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)7–14
- Q2 3:09MICHDonaven McCulley 8 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:57USCJa'Kobi Lane 2 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBryce Underwood 15/24, 207 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJordan Marshall 14 CAR, 68 YDS
- RecAndrew Marsh 8 REC, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJayden Maiava 25/32, 265 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushKing Miller 18 CAR, 158 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMakai Lemon 9 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSC up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 3:09MICH +22%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 8 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
- Q2 0:14USC +21%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 12 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
- Q1 8:57USC +17%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 2 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
- Q3 10:45USC +13%
King Miller run for 15 yds for a TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan vs. USC?
Michigan 13, USC 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
| MICH | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 316 | Total yards | 489 |
| 207 | Passing yards | 265 |
| 109 | Rushing yards | 224 |
| 17 | First downs | 24 |
| 2-9 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 15/26 | Comp/Att | 25/32 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-37 | Penalties | 3-31 |
| 26:38 | Possession | 33:22 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:21USCBryan Jackson 29 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)13–31
- Q4 9:17MICHAndrew Marsh 69 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–24
- Q4 10:01USCRyon Sayeri 54 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q3 10:45USCKing Miller 15 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)7–21
- Q2 0:14USCMakai Lemon 12 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)7–14
- Q2 3:09MICHDonaven McCulley 8 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:57USCJa'Kobi Lane 2 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1865, MICH Elo 1851 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -3 (59% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#119 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #22 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →USC leads 7–5 · 58% have been one-possession games
| MICH | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.4 (#22) | CORE overall | +22.5 (#10) |
| +11 / -6 | offense / defense | +18 / -4 |
| 2.70 | points / drive | 3.53 |
| 1.97 | allowed / drive | 2.14 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 14% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →