Michigan vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MICHTeam statsTEX
- Q4 3:38TEXMason Shipley 51 Yd Field Goal 27–41
- Q4 5:06TEXArch Manning 60 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)27–38
- Q4 6:54TEXKaliq Lockett 30 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)27–31
- Q4 10:56MICHBryce Underwood 5 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)27–24
- Q3 5:38TEXArch Manning 23 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)20–24
- Q3 9:37MICHDominic Zvada 31 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q2 7:41TEXJack Endries 17 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)17–17
- Q2 10:17MICHAndrew Marsh 4 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–10
- Q2 13:43TEXChristian Clark 3 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)10–10
- Q1 3:15MICHKendrick Bell 19 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood (Dominic Zvada Kick)10–3
- Q1 4:01MICHDominic Zvada 53 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 12:05TEXMason Shipley 43 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassBryce Underwood 23/42, 199 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushBryson Kuzdzal 20 CAR, 82 YDS
- RecDonaven McCulley 4 REC, 54 YDS
- PassArch Manning 21/34, 221 YDS, 2 TD
- RushArch Manning 9 CAR, 155 YDS, 2 TD
- RecRyan Wingo 4 REC, 64 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan vs. Texas?
Michigan 27, Texas 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
| MICH | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 373 | Total yards | 456 |
| 199 | Passing yards | 221 |
| 174 | Rushing yards | 235 |
| 19 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-18 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 5-6 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 23/43 | Comp/Att | 21/34 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 7.1 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-95 | Penalties | 12-103 |
| 33:08 | Possession | 26:52 |
- Q4 3:38TEXMason Shipley 51 Yd Field Goal 27–41
- Q4 5:06TEXArch Manning 60 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)27–38
- Q4 6:54TEXKaliq Lockett 30 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)27–31
- Q4 10:56MICHBryce Underwood 5 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)27–24
- Q3 5:38TEXArch Manning 23 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)20–24
- Q3 9:37MICHDominic Zvada 31 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q2 7:41TEXJack Endries 17 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)17–17
- Q2 10:17MICHAndrew Marsh 4 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–10
- Q2 13:43TEXChristian Clark 3 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)10–10
- Q1 3:15MICHKendrick Bell 19 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood (Dominic Zvada Kick)10–3
- Q1 4:01MICHDominic Zvada 53 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 12:05TEXMason Shipley 43 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEX Elo 1898, MICH Elo 1814 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects TEX -3.4 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MICH | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.4 (#22) | CORE overall | +14.3 (#28) |
| +11 / -6 | offense / defense | +5 / -9 |
| 2.70 | points / drive | 2.55 |
| 1.97 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →