Michigan
9-3·Big Ten· Elo 1814
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 10 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| TEX | 3 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TEX Elo 1898, MICH Elo 1814) on a neutral field. That projects TEX -3.4 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
TEX up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Michigan 27, Texas 41.
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TEX pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(05:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning rush left for 60 yards gain to the Mich00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:06, 1ST DOWN #49 M.Shipley kick attempt good (H: #19 J.Bouwmeester, LS: #58 L.St. Louis)
(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Texas rush middle for 22 yards loss to the Mich43 (#33 D.Nichols)
(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short left to #1 R.Wingo caught at Mich45, for 26 yards to the Mich34 (#10 Z.Berry), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Mich Holding declined
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