Miami vs. Virginia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIATeam statsVT
- Q4 0:20MIAMalachi Toney 20 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)34–17
- Q4 3:17VTWilliam Watson III 3 Yd Run (John Love Kick)27–17
- Q3 5:32MIAGirard Pringle Jr. 16 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)27–10
- Q3 11:59VTJeffrey Overton Jr. 38 Yd Run (John Love Kick)20–10
- Q2 0:37MIACarter Davis 40 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 4:16MIACarter Davis 46 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 12:50MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 3 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)14–3
- Q1 6:18VTJohn Love 30 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 10:16MIAElija Lofton 20 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- VT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MIA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 5.9
- PassCarson Beck 27/32, 320 YDS, 4 TD
- RushGirard Pringle Jr. 14 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecMalachi Toney 12 REC, 146 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKyron Drones 12/21, 124 YDS
- RushMarcellous Hawkins Jr. 8 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecAyden Greene 5 REC, 95 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIA up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:16MIA +8%
Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete deep middle to #9 E.Lofton caught at VT 00, for 20 yards to the VT 00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 12:50MIA +6%
#11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #4 M.Fletcher Jr. caught at VT 01, for 3 yards to the VT 00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. Virginia Tech?
Miami 34, Virginia Tech 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
| MIA | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| 418 | Total yards | 395 |
| 335 | Passing yards | 201 |
| 83 | Rushing yards | 194 |
| 22 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 3-5 |
| 28/33 | Comp/Att | 14/24 |
| 10.2 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-88 | Penalties | 7-75 |
| 33:29 | Possession | 26:31 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:20MIAMalachi Toney 20 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)34–17
- Q4 3:17VTWilliam Watson III 3 Yd Run (John Love Kick)27–17
- Q3 5:32MIAGirard Pringle Jr. 16 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)27–10
- Q3 11:59VTJeffrey Overton Jr. 38 Yd Run (John Love Kick)20–10
- Q2 0:37MIACarter Davis 40 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 4:16MIACarter Davis 46 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 12:50MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 3 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)14–3
- Q1 6:18VTJohn Love 30 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 10:16MIAElija Lofton 20 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VT Elo 1402, MIA Elo 1914 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VT +18.1 (13% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMiami leads 27–15 · Miami has won 5 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| MIA | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| +31.1 (#6) | CORE overall | -9.5 (#94) |
| +14 / -18 | offense / defense | -0 / +9 |
| 2.85 | points / drive | 1.85 |
| 1.31 | allowed / drive | 3.19 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →