| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 7 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 34 |
| VT | 3 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (VT Elo 1402, MIA Elo 1914) plus home-field advantage. That projects VT +18.1 (9% to win), essentially in line with the market.
MIA up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Miami 34, Virginia Tech 17.
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MIA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(03:58) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete deep right to #0 A.Greene caught at MIA09, for 39 yards to the MIA03 (#2 D.Brown), 1ST DOWN
(02:51) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short middle to #11 I.Spencer caught at VT 31, for 38 yards to the MIA33 (#13 B.Fitzgerald), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
(01:28) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete deep middle to #10 M.Toney caught at MIA40, for 56 yards to the VT 24 (#9 I.Brown-Murray), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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