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Miami vs. Texas A&M: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Dec 20, 5:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| TA&M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TA&M 1878
MIA 1967
Projected spread
TA&M +1.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
MIA
53% to win
Market spread
TA&M -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
MIA
4.2 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
47%
TA&M · market 56%
Our model blends Elo ratings (TA&M Elo 1878, MIA Elo 1967) plus home-field advantage. That projects TA&M +1.2 (47% to win) — 4.2 points of value on MIA versus the market line of -3.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TA&M (top)MIA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TA&M 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MIA2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTA&M
Offense
0.22
PPA / play
0.2446%
Success rate
46%1.16
Explosiveness
1.234.36
Pts / opportunity
4.1483%
Power success
75%Defense
0.05
PPA allowed / play
0.1337%
Success rate allowed
34%1.27
Explosiveness allowed
1.4519%
Havoc rate
21%20%
Stuff rate
21%Key matchups · Pro
- MIA pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. TA&M pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge MIA.
- TA&M pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. MIA pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge TA&M.
- TA&M rush offense (0.16 PPA) vs. MIA rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge TA&M.
Drive-by-drive
MIA 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →TA&M 1/11 scoring drives
TA&MPUNT12 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q1
MIAPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 8Q1
TA&MFUM5 pl, 31 yds· own 38Q1
MIAPUNT4 pl, 13 yds· own 31Q1
TA&MPUNT5 pl, 13 yds· own 13Q1
MIAPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 34Q2
TA&MKICKOFF5 pl, 65 yds· own 30Q2
MIAPUNT4 pl, 18 yds· own 13Q2
TA&MPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 28Q2
MIAMISS4 pl, -4 yds· opp 25Q2
TA&MDOWNS5 pl, 17 yds· own 29Q2
MIAMISS7 pl, 24 yds· opp 46Q2
MIAFG9 pl, 72 yds· own 25Q3
TA&MINT5 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q3
MIAMISS4 pl, 3 yds· opp 20Q3
TA&MPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 20Q3
MIAPUNT4 pl, 16 yds· own 31Q3
TA&MFG16 pl, 67 yds· own 16Q3
MIAFUM2 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q4
TA&MPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 47Q4
MIATD6 pl, 86 yds· own 14Q4
TA&MINT10 pl, 70 yds· own 25Q4
MIAUncateg1 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MIA up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
MIA went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. Texas A&M?
Miami 10, Texas A&M 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had MIA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.