Miami vs. Texas A&M: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIATeam statsTA&M
- Q4 1:44MIAMalachi Toney 11 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)10–3
- Q4 8:03TA&MRandy Bond 35 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q3 10:34MIACarter Davis 21 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassCarson Beck 14/20, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMark Fletcher Jr. 17 CAR, 172 YDS
- RecKeelan Marion 3 REC, 33 YDS
- PassMarcel Reed 25/39, 237 YDS, 2 INT
- RushMarcel Reed 15 CAR, 27 YDS
- RecMario Craver 7 REC, 92 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. Texas A&M?
Miami 10, Texas A&M 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
| MIA | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 278 | Total yards | 326 |
| 103 | Passing yards | 237 |
| 175 | Rushing yards | 89 |
| 12 | First downs | 21 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 8-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 14/21 | Comp/Att | 25/40 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 5.9 |
| 6.3 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 4-15 |
| 26:16 | Possession | 33:44 |
- Q4 1:44MIAMalachi Toney 11 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)10–3
- Q4 8:03TA&MRandy Bond 35 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q3 10:34MIACarter Davis 21 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TA&M Elo 1878, MIA Elo 1967 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TA&M +1.2 (48% to win) — 4.2 points clear of MIA's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MIA | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| +31.1 (#6) | CORE overall | +22.7 (#9) |
| +14 / -18 | offense / defense | +12 / -11 |
| 2.85 | points / drive | 2.65 |
| 1.31 | allowed / drive | 1.67 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →