Miami vs. Indiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIATeam statsIU
- Q4 1:42IUNico Radicic 35 Yd Field Goal 21–27
- Q4 6:37MIAMalachi Toney 22 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)21–24
- Q4 9:18IUFernando Mendoza 12 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)14–24
- Q4 14:57MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 3 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)14–17
- Q3 5:04IUIsaiah Jones 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Nico Radicic Kick)7–17
- Q3 11:06MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 57 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)7–10
- Q2 6:13IURiley Nowakowski 1 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)0–10
- Q1 2:42IUNico Radicic 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MIA ahead, below = IU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassCarson Beck 19/32, 232 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMark Fletcher Jr. 17 CAR, 112 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMalachi Toney 10 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD
- PassFernando Mendoza 16/27, 186 YDS
- RushKaelon Black 17 CAR, 79 YDS
- RecOmar Cooper Jr. 5 REC, 71 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. Indiana?
Miami 21, Indiana 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
| MIA | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 342 | Total yards | 317 |
| 232 | Passing yards | 186 |
| 110 | Rushing yards | 131 |
| 15 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 19/32 | Comp/Att | 16/27 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 5-38 |
| 23:36 | Possession | 36:24 |
- Q4 1:42IUNico Radicic 35 Yd Field Goal 21–27
- Q4 6:37MIAMalachi Toney 22 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)21–24
- Q4 9:18IUFernando Mendoza 12 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)14–24
- Q4 14:57MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 3 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)14–17
- Q3 5:04IUIsaiah Jones 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Nico Radicic Kick)7–17
- Q3 11:06MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 57 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)7–10
- Q2 6:13IURiley Nowakowski 1 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)0–10
- Q1 2:42IUNico Radicic 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IU Elo 2354, MIA Elo 2006 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects IU -13.9 (82% to win) — 6.4 points clear of IU's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#126 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #15 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| MIA | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| +31.1 (#6) | CORE overall | +35.3 (#3) |
| +14 / -18 | offense / defense | +19 / -17 |
| 2.85 | points / drive | 3.69 |
| 1.31 | allowed / drive | 0.94 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →