Miami vs. Indiana: Final Score & Recap
Tue, Jan 20, 12:30 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 21 |
| IU | 3 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 27 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (IU Elo 2354, MIA Elo 2006) on a neutral field. That projects IU -13.9 (85% to win) — 6.4 points of value on IU versus the market line of -7.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: IU · 13 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Defense
Key matchups · Pro
- IU pass offense (0.52 PPA) vs. MIA pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge IU.
- MIA pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. IU pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge MIA.
- MIA rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. IU rush defense (-0.09 allowed) — edge MIA.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
IU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. Indiana?
Miami 21, Indiana 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
Called it — I had IU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.