Center Parc StadiumClosing line: MEM +-15 · MEM covered
Sat, Sep 6, 11:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 7 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 38 |
| GAST | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (GAST Elo 1230, MEM Elo 1604) plus home-field advantage. That projects GAST +12.6 (18% to win) — 2.4 points of value on GAST versus the market line of +15.
MEM up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Memphis 38, Georgia State 16.
Yes — the model's pick (MEM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MEM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 1st quarter, clock 00:00.
Branson Robinson run for no gain to the MEM 3
Branson Robinson run
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