Memphis vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MEMTeam statsGAST
- Q4 0:11MEMDeMarco Ward 31 Yd Interception Return (Gianni Spetic Kick)38–16
- Q3 0:15MEMMakari Bodiford 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)31–16
- Q3 10:08MEMBrendon Lewis 5 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)24–16
- Q2 0:00MEMGianni Spetic 55 Yd Field Goal 17–16
- Q2 2:40GASTJavon Robinson 44 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Braeden McAlister Kick)14–16
- Q2 5:34MEMMakari Bodiford 7 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)14–9
- Q1 0:17GASTCameran Brown 22 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)7–9
- Q1 3:22GASTMarlin Dean Safety7–2
- Q1 9:07MEMSutton Smith 16 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBrendon Lewis 16/20, 196 YDS
- RushSutton Smith 14 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJamari Hawkins 3 REC, 79 YDS
- PassTJ Finley 21/29, 201 YDS, 1 INT
- RushCameran Brown 3 CAR, 25 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTed Hurst III 7 REC, 97 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMEM up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:40GAST +19%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Javon Robinson for 44 yds for a TD (Braeden McAlister KICK)
- Q2 5:34MEM +16%
Makari Bodiford run for 7 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
- Q3 10:08MEM +16%
Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
- Q1 0:17GAST +15%
Cameran Brown run for 22 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
- Q1 9:07MEM +11%
Sutton Smith run for 16 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
- Q3 11:15MEM +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lewis,Brendon pass incomplete short right to Kluse,Brady thrown to GSU00 PENALTY GSU Offside (Dean,Marlin) 5 yards from GSU19 to GSU14, 1ST DOWN. NO…
FAQ
What was the final score of Memphis vs. Georgia State?
Memphis 38, Georgia State 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MEM) was correct.
| MEM | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 401 | Total yards | 389 |
| 196 | Passing yards | 340 |
| 205 | Rushing yards | 49 |
| 21 | First downs | 19 |
| 5-10 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 16/20 | Comp/Att | 29/41 |
| 9.8 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 1.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-65 | Penalties | 9-50 |
| 29:53 | Possession | 30:07 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:09 MEM field goal on 4th & 2 at GAST 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:11MEMDeMarco Ward 31 Yd Interception Return (Gianni Spetic Kick)38–16
- Q3 0:15MEMMakari Bodiford 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)31–16
- Q3 10:08MEMBrendon Lewis 5 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)24–16
- Q2 0:00MEMGianni Spetic 55 Yd Field Goal 17–16
- Q2 2:40GASTJavon Robinson 44 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Braeden McAlister Kick)14–16
- Q2 5:34MEMMakari Bodiford 7 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)14–9
- Q1 0:17GASTCameran Brown 22 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)7–9
- Q1 3:22GASTMarlin Dean Safety7–2
- Q1 9:07MEMSutton Smith 16 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GAST Elo 1230, MEM Elo 1604 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GAST +12.6 (21% to win) — 2.4 points clear of GAST's market line of +15. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MEM | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.0 (#61) | CORE overall | -16.7 (#117) |
| +4 / +2 | offense / defense | -6 / +11 |
| 2.73 | points / drive | 1.62 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 3.54 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →