Massachusetts vs. Ohio: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MASSTeam statsOHIO
- Q4 2:11OHIODuncan Brune 1 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)14–42
- Q4 6:46OHIOParker Navarro 4 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)14–35
- Q3 3:57OHIOSieh Bangura 2 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)14–28
- Q3 8:56MASSElijah Pedro 9 Yd pass from Grant Jordan (Derek Morris Kick)14–21
- Q2 3:44OHIOSieh Bangura 3 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)7–21
- Q2 7:12OHIODuncan Brune 13 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:03OHIOParker Navarro 2 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:05MASSOwen Anderson 10 Yd pass from Brandon Rose (Derek Morris Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassGrant Jordan 10/21, 56 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushBrandon Hood 10 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecJacquon Gibson 5 REC, 21 YDS
- PassParker Navarro 3/8, 28 YDS
- RushSieh Bangura 27 CAR, 196 YDS, 2 TD
- RecEian Pugh 1 REC, 19 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOHIO up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Massachusetts vs. Ohio?
Massachusetts 14, Ohio 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OHIO) was correct.
| MASS | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 215 | Total yards | 391 |
| 90 | Passing yards | 28 |
| 125 | Rushing yards | 363 |
| 17 | First downs | 17 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 3-5 |
| 15/28 | Comp/Att | 3/8 |
| 3.2 | Yards per pass | 3.5 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 5-60 |
| 27:17 | Possession | 32:43 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:53 MASS field goal on 4th & 6 at OHIO 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.28 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:11OHIODuncan Brune 1 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)14–42
- Q4 6:46OHIOParker Navarro 4 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)14–35
- Q3 3:57OHIOSieh Bangura 2 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)14–28
- Q3 8:56MASSElijah Pedro 9 Yd pass from Grant Jordan (Derek Morris Kick)14–21
- Q2 3:44OHIOSieh Bangura 3 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)7–21
- Q2 7:12OHIODuncan Brune 13 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:03OHIOParker Navarro 2 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:05MASSOwen Anderson 10 Yd pass from Brandon Rose (Derek Morris Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OHIO Elo 1585, MASS Elo 735 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OHIO -36.4 (98% to win) — 2.4 points clear of OHIO's market line of -34. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MASS | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| -40.3 (#136) | CORE overall | -1.1 (#66) |
| -22 / +18 | offense / defense | +1 / +2 |
| 0.88 | points / drive | 2.50 |
| 3.71 | allowed / drive | 1.96 |
| 43% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →