| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MASS | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
| OHIO | 7 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (OHIO Elo 1585, MASS Elo 735) plus home-field advantage. That projects OHIO -36.4 (100% to win) — 2.4 points of value on OHIO versus the market line of -34.
OHIO up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Massachusetts 14, Ohio 42.
Yes — the model's pick (OHIO) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had OHIO pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gibson rush left for 12 yards gain to the Ohio41 (#30 C.Christopher; #22 J.Thomeson), 1ST DOWN
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 25 yards gain to the UMass34 (#38 Z.Daniel), 1ST DOWN
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:57, 1ST DOWN #39 D.Dellenbach kick attempt good (H: #42 M.Haines, LS: #46 N.Hemer)
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