Maryland vs. UCLA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MDTeam statsUCLA
- Q4 0:02UCLAMateen Bhaghani 23 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q4 0:40MDJalil Farooq 8 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Ryan Capriotti Kick)17–17
- Q4 2:04UCLAMateen Bhaghani 42 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q4 3:33UCLAMikey Matthews 14 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)10–14
- Q3 4:40MDJamare Glasker 8 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Capriotti Kick)10–7
- Q2 12:05UCLAAnthony Frias II 55 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)3–7
- Q2 14:11MDSean O'Haire 24 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassMalik Washington 23/48, 210 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMalik Washington 6 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecDeJuan Williams 7 REC, 86 YDS
- PassNico Iamaleava 21/35, 221 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushAnthony Frias II 4 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTitus Mokiao-Atimalala 6 REC, 102 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMD up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 3:33UCLA +73%
Mikey Matthews 14 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)
- Q3 4:40MD +25%
Maryland Penalty, false start (Dillan Fontus) to the UCLA 8
- Q4 2:18UCLA +23%
UCLA Penalty, false start (Garrett DiGiorgio) to the MD 25
- Q4 0:40MD +20%
Jalil Farooq 8 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Ryan Capriotti Kick)
- Q4 0:34UCLA +20%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Kwazi Gilmer
- Q4 5:46MD +20%
Bryce McFerson punt for 43 yds
FAQ
What was the final score of Maryland vs. UCLA?
Maryland 17, UCLA 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MD, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MD | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 337 | Total yards | 414 |
| 210 | Passing yards | 221 |
| 127 | Rushing yards | 193 |
| 17 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 7-17 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 23/48 | Comp/Att | 21/35 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-60 | Penalties | 10-85 |
| 26:58 | Possession | 33:02 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:44 UCLA field goal on 4th & 2 at MD 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:02UCLAMateen Bhaghani 23 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q4 0:40MDJalil Farooq 8 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Ryan Capriotti Kick)17–17
- Q4 2:04UCLAMateen Bhaghani 42 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q4 3:33UCLAMikey Matthews 14 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)10–14
- Q3 4:40MDJamare Glasker 8 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Capriotti Kick)10–7
- Q2 12:05UCLAAnthony Frias II 55 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)3–7
- Q2 14:11MDSean O'Haire 24 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCLA Elo 1445, MD Elo 1576 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCLA +2.8 (44% to win) — 6.8 points clear of MD's market line of -4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MD | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.8 (#75) | CORE overall | -6.4 (#84) |
| -7 / -4 | offense / defense | -2 / +4 |
| 1.74 | points / drive | 1.90 |
| 2.30 | allowed / drive | 3.43 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +14 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →