Maryland
4-2·Big Ten· Elo 1576
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MD | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
| UCLA | 0 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UCLA Elo 1445, MD Elo 1576) plus home-field advantage. That projects UCLA +2.8 (42% to win) — 6.8 points of value on MD versus the market line of -4.
MD up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Maryland 17, UCLA 20.
No — the model picked MD, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had MD pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Jamare Glasker 8 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Capriotti Kick)
Nico Iamaleava pass intercepted Jalen Huskey return for no gain to the MD 8
Anthony Frias II 55 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)
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