Maryland vs. Michigan State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MDTeam statsMSU
- Q4 1:56MSUOmari Kelly 10 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington Kick)28–38
- Q3 5:06MDJalil Farooq 24 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)28–31
- Q3 6:12MSUAlante Brown 92 Yd Kickoff Return (Martin Connington Kick)21–31
- Q3 6:26MDShaleak Knotts 25 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)21–24
- Q3 11:36MDDeJuan Williams 5 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)21–24
- Q2 0:04MSUJack Velling 9 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington Kick)14–24
- Q2 5:43MDJalil Farooq 7 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)14–17
- Q2 8:40MSUNick Marsh 15 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington Kick)7–17
- Q2 12:26MSUMartin Connington 25 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 9:45MSUKai Rios 1 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassMalik Washington 38/61, 459 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushDeJuan Williams 5 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- RecShaleak Knotts 8 REC, 139 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAlessio Milivojevic 27/39, 292 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushElijah Tau-Tolliver 13 CAR, 95 YDS
- RecNick Marsh 7 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:12MSU +25%
#98 R.Capriotti kickoff 57 yards to the MSU08 #0 A.Brown return 92 yards to the UMD00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 5:06MD +25%
Jalil Farooq 24 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)
- Q4 2:54MSU +24%
#11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #1 O.Kelly caught at UMD37, for 10 yards to the UMD26 (#3 T.Reddick) PENALTY UMD UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#3 T.Redd…
- Q4 3:22MD +23%
Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete deep right to #4 S.Knotts thrown to MSU26
- Q3 11:36MD +22%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.Williams rush left for 5 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:04MSU +21%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #12 J.Velling caught at UMD00, for 9 yards to the UMD00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Maryland vs. Michigan State?
Maryland 28, Michigan State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MD, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MD | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 534 | Total yards | 453 |
| 459 | Passing yards | 292 |
| 75 | Rushing yards | 161 |
| 26 | First downs | 24 |
| 9-16 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 38/61 | Comp/Att | 27/39 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-75 | Penalties | 7-50 |
| 28:16 | Possession | 31:44 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:11 MSU punt on 4th & 2 at MSU 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.36 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:56MSUOmari Kelly 10 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington Kick)28–38
- Q3 5:06MDJalil Farooq 24 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)28–31
- Q3 6:12MSUAlante Brown 92 Yd Kickoff Return (Martin Connington Kick)21–31
- Q3 6:26MDShaleak Knotts 25 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)21–24
- Q3 11:36MDDeJuan Williams 5 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)21–24
- Q2 0:04MSUJack Velling 9 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington Kick)14–24
- Q2 5:43MDJalil Farooq 7 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)14–17
- Q2 8:40MSUNick Marsh 15 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington Kick)7–17
- Q2 12:26MSUMartin Connington 25 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 9:45MSUKai Rios 1 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSU Elo 1382, MD Elo 1414 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects MSU +1.3 (48% to win) — 5.3 points clear of MD's market line of -4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMichigan State leads 12–4 · Michigan State has won 2 straight · 25% have been one-possession games
| MD | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.8 (#75) | CORE overall | -8.6 (#91) |
| -7 / -4 | offense / defense | -4 / +4 |
| 1.74 | points / drive | 1.95 |
| 2.30 | allowed / drive | 2.64 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +14 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →