| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 14 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| MIA | 7 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MIA Elo 1843, LOU Elo 1735) plus home-field advantage. That projects MIA -6.7 (69% to win) — 3.8 points of value on LOU versus the market line of -10.5.
LOU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Louisville 24, Miami 21.
No — the model picked MIA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had MIA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Carson Beck pass intercepted T.J. Capers return for no gain to the LOU 30
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 61 yds to the LOU 9 for a 1ST down
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 36 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
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