Louisville vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LOUTeam statsMIA
- Q4 7:37MIAMalachi Toney 12 Yd Run (Malachi Toney Pass to CJ Daniels for Two-Point Conversion)24–21
- Q4 13:27LOUChris Bell 36 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)24–13
- Q3 1:51MIACarter Davis 41 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q3 10:58LOUCooper Ranvier 48 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 1:56MIACarter Davis 27 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q1 2:19MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 2 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)14–7
- Q1 5:09LOUChris Bell 35 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:55LOUMiller Moss 1 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LOU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MIA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 6.6
- PassMiller Moss 23/37, 248 YDS, 2 TD
- RushIsaac Brown 15 CAR, 113 YDS
- RecChris Bell 9 REC, 136 YDS, 2 TD
- PassCarson Beck 25/35, 271 YDS, 4 INT
- RushMark Fletcher Jr. 8 CAR, 18 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMalachi Toney 9 REC, 135 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLOU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:37MIA +55%
M. Toney run for 12 yds for a TD (M. Toney pass to C. Daniels for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 13:27LOU +35%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 36 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
- Q4 7:42LOU +19%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 12 Isaac Brown fumbled, recovered by MIA Zechariah Poyser
- Q4 9:47MIA +18%
Shotgun Brown,CharMar rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA48 (Perry,Kalib) PENALTY MIA Holding (Fletcher Jr.,Mark) 10 yards from MIA45 to MIA35. NO PLAY
- Q1 8:55LOU +18%
Miller Moss run for 1 yd for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
- Q1 2:19MIA +18%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisville vs. Miami?
Louisville 24, Miami 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LOU | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 367 | Total yards | 334 |
| 248 | Passing yards | 271 |
| 119 | Rushing yards | 63 |
| 21 | First downs | 15 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 23/37 | Comp/Att | 25/35 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 7.7 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 6-64 | Penalties | 9-67 |
| 31:16 | Possession | 28:44 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:04 LOU punt on 4th & 2 at MIA 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.19 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:37MIAMalachi Toney 12 Yd Run (Malachi Toney Pass to CJ Daniels for Two-Point Conversion)24–21
- Q4 13:27LOUChris Bell 36 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)24–13
- Q3 1:51MIACarter Davis 41 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q3 10:58LOUCooper Ranvier 48 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 1:56MIACarter Davis 27 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q1 2:19MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 2 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)14–7
- Q1 5:09LOUChris Bell 35 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:55LOUMiller Moss 1 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1843, LOU Elo 1735 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIA -6.7 (68% to win) — 3.8 points clear of LOU's market line of -10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#81 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #35 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #1 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Miami leads 11–5–1 · 29% have been one-possession games
| LOU | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.6 (#18) | CORE overall | +31.1 (#6) |
| +5 / -14 | offense / defense | +14 / -18 |
| 2.32 | points / drive | 2.85 |
| 1.71 | allowed / drive | 1.31 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →