Louisiana vs. Missouri: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULTeam statsMIZ
- Q4 7:02MIZMarquise Davis 2 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)10–52
- Q3 10:02MIZAhmad Hardy 7 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)10–45
- Q2 0:00MIZRobert Meyer 22 Yd Field Goal 10–38
- Q2 3:27ULZylan Perry 84 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)10–35
- Q2 5:41MIZAhmad Hardy 71 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)3–35
- Q2 6:22ULTony Sterner 34 Yd Field Goal 3–28
- Q2 10:31MIZJamal Roberts 39 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Robert Meyer Kick)0–28
- Q2 14:18MIZBeau Pribula 14 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)0–21
- Q1 2:38MIZMarquis Johnson 11 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Robert Meyer Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:26MIZAhmad Hardy 7 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MIZ did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 5.9
- PassDaniel Beale 1/8, 5 YDS
- RushZylan Perry 5 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCaden Jensen 1 REC, 5 YDS
- PassBeau Pribula 15/22, 174 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushAhmad Hardy 22 CAR, 250 YDS, 3 TD
- RecKevin Coleman Jr. 8 REC, 84 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIZ up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana vs. Missouri?
Louisiana 10, Missouri 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIZ) was correct.
| UL | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 121 | Total yards | 606 |
| 4 | Passing yards | 179 |
| 117 | Rushing yards | 427 |
| 4 | First downs | 32 |
| 1-11 | 3rd down | 9-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 2/14 | Comp/Att | 17/24 |
| 0.3 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 6.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-32 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 17:09 | Possession | 42:51 |
Costliest call
Q1 0:39 UL punt on 4th & 1 at UL 23. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.78 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:02MIZMarquise Davis 2 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)10–52
- Q3 10:02MIZAhmad Hardy 7 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)10–45
- Q2 0:00MIZRobert Meyer 22 Yd Field Goal 10–38
- Q2 3:27ULZylan Perry 84 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)10–35
- Q2 5:41MIZAhmad Hardy 71 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)3–35
- Q2 6:22ULTony Sterner 34 Yd Field Goal 3–28
- Q2 10:31MIZJamal Roberts 39 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Robert Meyer Kick)0–28
- Q2 14:18MIZBeau Pribula 14 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)0–21
- Q1 2:38MIZMarquis Johnson 11 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Robert Meyer Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:26MIZAhmad Hardy 7 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIZ Elo 1659, UL Elo 1463 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIZ -10.2 (76% to win) — 17.3 points clear of UL's market line of -27.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UL | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.6 (#126) | CORE overall | +20.9 (#12) |
| -8 / +13 | offense / defense | +5 / -15 |
| 2.09 | points / drive | 2.45 |
| 2.56 | allowed / drive | 1.57 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →