| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UL | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| MIZ | 14 | 24 | 7 | 7 | 52 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MIZ Elo 1659, UL Elo 1463) plus home-field advantage. That projects MIZ -10.2 (78% to win) — 17.3 points of value on UL versus the market line of -27.5.
MIZ up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Louisiana 10, Missouri 52.
Yes — the model's pick (MIZ) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MIZ pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Zylan Perry run for 84 yds for a TD (Tony Sterner KICK)
Ahmad Hardy run for 71 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)
Beau Pribula pass complete to Jamal Roberts for 39 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)
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