| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| LSU | 7 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 23 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (LSU Elo 1730, LT Elo 1397) plus home-field advantage. That projects LSU -15.7 (88% to win) — 20.8 points of value on LT versus the market line of -36.5.
LSU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Louisiana Tech 7, LSU 23.
Yes — the model's pick (LSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had LSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Devin Gandy 33 Yd pass from Blake Baker (Drew Henderson Kick)
Zavion Thomas run for 48 yds to the LT 12 for a 1ST down
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 21 yds to the LT 30 for a 1ST down
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