Louisiana Tech vs. LSU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LTTeam statsLSU
- Q4 1:55LSUDamian Ramos 19 Yd Field Goal 7–23
- Q4 4:02LTDevin Gandy 33 Yd pass from Blake Baker (Drew Henderson Kick)7–20
- Q4 11:14LSUDamian Ramos 46 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q3 1:58LSUCaden Durham 3 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)0–17
- Q2 6:24LSUDamian Ramos 23 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 0:12LSUNic Anderson 7 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTrey Kukuk 12/18, 50 YDS
- RushClay Thevenin 7 CAR, 22 YDS
- RecDevin Gandy 1 REC, 33 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGarrett Nussmeier 26/41, 237 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushHarlem Berry 6 CAR, 56 YDS
- RecBarion Brown 8 REC, 94 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLSU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:12LSU +11%
Nic Anderson 7 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana Tech vs. LSU?
Louisiana Tech 7, LSU 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LSU) was correct.
| LT | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 154 | Total yards | 365 |
| 96 | Passing yards | 237 |
| 58 | Rushing yards | 128 |
| 12 | First downs | 27 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 9-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 15/26 | Comp/Att | 26/41 |
| 3.7 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 12-130 | Penalties | 9-77 |
| 23:08 | Possession | 36:52 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:32 LT punt on 4th & 1 at LT 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.97 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:55LSUDamian Ramos 19 Yd Field Goal 7–23
- Q4 4:02LTDevin Gandy 33 Yd pass from Blake Baker (Drew Henderson Kick)7–20
- Q4 11:14LSUDamian Ramos 46 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q3 1:58LSUCaden Durham 3 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)0–17
- Q2 6:24LSUDamian Ramos 23 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 0:12LSUNic Anderson 7 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LSU Elo 1730, LT Elo 1397 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LSU -15.7 (85% to win) — 20.8 points clear of LT's market line of -36.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLSU leads 17–1 · LSU has won 16 straight · 11% have been one-possession games
| LT | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.2 (#70) | CORE overall | +8.1 (#45) |
| -6 / -4 | offense / defense | -3 / -11 |
| 2.08 | points / drive | 1.66 |
| 1.61 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →