Lindenwood vs. App State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Lindenwood
App State1-0
▸Final
Kidd Brewer Stadium
LINDTeam statsAPP
216Total yards503
217Pass294
-1Rush209
13First downs20
3-173rd down6-13
2Turnovers4
35:08Possession24:52
- Q4 3:34LINDRico Bond 24 Yd pass from Nate Glantz (Will Graham Kick)13–20
- Q4 14:12APPDominic De Freitas 24 Yd Field Goal 6–20
- Q3 5:36APPDominic De Freitas 29 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 7:15LINDNate Glantz 1 Yd Run (Will Graham PAT blocked)6–14
- Q1 3:32APPJaden Barnes 13 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Dominic De Freitas Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:42APPDalton Stroman 72 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Dominic De Freitas Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
APP −30.5
Against the number
LIND covered
line APP −30.5
What the numbers say
- LIND played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and APP did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.7 vs 3rd & 6.1
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
APP (top)LIND (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: APP 100%
Closing line
APP −30.5
Closing total
55.5
Model line
—
Actual result
LIND 13 – 20 APP
Lindenwood
- PassNate Glantz 20/36, 217 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJared Rhodes 11 CAR, 20 YDS
- RecRico Bond 7 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
App State
- PassAJ Swann 19/34, 294 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushRashod Dubinion 25 CAR, 194 YDS
- RecDalton Stroman 3 REC, 142 YDS, 1 TD
18.4sper snap · faster the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
136
Points / snap
0.24
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAPP up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
APP went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Lindenwood vs. App State?
Lindenwood 13, App State 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (APP) was correct.
LIND
APP
33%
Success rate
47%
0.02
EPA / pass
0.30
-0.22
EPA / rush
0.03
33%
Early-down success
49%
32%
Pass success
39%
36%
Rush success
56%
11%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
16%
32%
Stuffed rush rate
15%
62%
Pass rate
51%
8.7
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.1
LIND
8.7 yards to go on 3rd down
66 scrimmage snaps
APP
6.1 yards to go on 3rd down
70 scrimmage snaps
| LIND | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 216 | Total yards | 503 |
| 217 | Passing yards | 294 |
| -1 | Rushing yards | 209 |
| 13 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-17 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 20/36 | Comp/Att | 19/34 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 0.0 | Yards per rush | 6.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 3-30 | Penalties | 9-80 |
| 35:08 | Possession | 24:52 |
LIND
12/12 with the model
nothing given up
APP
6/6 with the model
nothing given up
No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishLIND 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →APP 4/12 scoring drives
APPTD1 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q1
LINDINT8 pl, 33 yds· own 25Q1
APPFUM6 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1
LINDPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 20Q1
APPTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
LINDPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 25Q1
APPPUNT4 pl, -8 yds· own 30Q1
LINDPUNT4 pl, -10 yds· own 29Q1
APPDOWNS4 pl, 7 yds· own 47Q2
LINDTD8 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q2
APPPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q2
LINDPUNT5 pl, 22 yds· own 22Q2
APPINT4 pl, 27 yds· own 14Q2
LINDDOWNS8 pl, 41 yds· own 27Q2
LINDPUNT3 pl, -13 yds· own 40Q3
APPFUM5 pl, 43 yds· own 20Q3
LINDPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 37Q3
APPFG12 pl, 67 yds· own 22Q3
LINDPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3
APPFG11 pl, 61 yds· own 33Q3
LINDPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q4
APPFUM6 pl, 36 yds· own 10Q4
LINDTD9 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q4
LINDINT4 pl, 3 yds· opp 46Q4
APPEND5 pl, 11 yds· own 18Q4
- Q4 3:34LINDRico Bond 24 Yd pass from Nate Glantz (Will Graham Kick)13–20
- Q4 14:12APPDominic De Freitas 24 Yd Field Goal 6–20
- Q3 5:36APPDominic De Freitas 29 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 7:15LINDNate Glantz 1 Yd Run (Will Graham PAT blocked)6–14
- Q1 3:32APPJaden Barnes 13 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Dominic De Freitas Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:42APPDalton Stroman 72 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Dominic De Freitas Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →