Liberty vs. Bowling Green: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LIBTeam statsBGSU
- Q4 2:46LIBEvan Dickens 12 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–23
- Q4 11:48BGSUChris McMillian 7 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)7–23
- Q4 13:43BGSUJackson Kleather 50 Yd Field Goal 7–16
- Q3 1:23BGSUJackson Kleather 26 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q3 7:10LIBDonte Lee Jr. 44 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Brayden Beck Kick)7–10
- Q2 0:08BGSUJacob Harris 12 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Jackson Kleather Kick)0–10
- Q1 8:44BGSUJackson Kleather 48 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassEthan Vasko 13/24, 194 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushEvan Dickens 15 CAR, 96 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonte Lee Jr. 3 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDrew Pyne 16/31, 146 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKaderris Roberts 10 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecRJ Garcia II 3 REC, 38 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBGSU up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:46LIB +56%
Evan Dickens run for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q3 11:19BGSU +36%
Julian Gray run for 5 yds to the LIB 27
- Q4 10:16LIB +25%
Evan Dickens run for no gain to the BGSU 48
- Q4 2:39BGSU +24%
Chris McMillian run for 5 yds to the LIB 41
- Q4 5:09BGSU +22%
Bowling Green Penalty, (Yards) declined
- Q4 11:48BGSU +22%
Chris McMillian run for 7 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Liberty vs. Bowling Green?
Liberty 13, Bowling Green 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BGSU) was correct.
| LIB | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 346 | Total yards | 304 |
| 194 | Passing yards | 146 |
| 152 | Rushing yards | 158 |
| 17 | First downs | 17 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 13/25 | Comp/Att | 16/32 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 4.6 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-48 | Penalties | 13-106 |
| 28:51 | Possession | 31:09 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:40 BGSU punt on 4th & 1 at BGSU 31. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:46LIBEvan Dickens 12 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–23
- Q4 11:48BGSUChris McMillian 7 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)7–23
- Q4 13:43BGSUJackson Kleather 50 Yd Field Goal 7–16
- Q3 1:23BGSUJackson Kleather 26 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q3 7:10LIBDonte Lee Jr. 44 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Brayden Beck Kick)7–10
- Q2 0:08BGSUJacob Harris 12 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Jackson Kleather Kick)0–10
- Q1 8:44BGSUJackson Kleather 48 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BGSU Elo 1434, LIB Elo 1494 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BGSU PK (51% to win) — 6.0 points clear of BGSU's market line of +6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| LIB | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.1 (#88) | CORE overall | -18.8 (#122) |
| +2 / +9 | offense / defense | -16 / +3 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 1.66 |
| 2.59 | allowed / drive | 2.20 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →