Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Sat, Sep 13, 9:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| BGSU | 3 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BGSU Elo 1434, LIB Elo 1494) plus home-field advantage. That projects BGSU PK (50% to win) — 6.0 points of value on BGSU versus the market line of +6.
BGSU up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Liberty 13, Bowling Green 23.
Yes — the model's pick (BGSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BGSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Donte Lee Jr. for 44 yds for a TD (Brayden Beck KICK)
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Evan Dickens for 17 yds to the BGSU 45 for a 1ST down
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jacob Harris for 12 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)
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