Lafayette vs. Bowling Green: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Lafayette
Bowling Green
▸Final
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
LAFATeam statsBGSU
177Total yards266
118Pass109
59Rush157
11First downs17
4-143rd down5-13
0Turnovers0
27:40Possession32:20
- Q4 4:47BGSUJackson Kleather 35 Yd Field Goal7–26
- Q3 1:10BGSUJackson Kleather 39 Yd Field Goal7–23
- Q3 3:39LAFAElijah Steward 5 Yd pass from Dean DeNobile (Jack Simonetta Kick)7–20
- Q3 10:11BGSUJackson Kleather 56 Yd Field Goal0–20
- Q2 0:20BGSUMar'Kel Porter 4 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)0–17
- Q2 14:15BGSUJackson Kleather 30 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q1 14:49BGSUCameron Pettaway 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Jackson Kleather Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
BGSU −21
Against the number
LAFA covered
line BGSU −21
Kickoff140 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
BGSU (top)LAFA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BGSU 100%
Closing line
BGSU −21
Closing total
53.5
Model line
—
Actual result
LAFA 7 – 26 BGSU
Lafayette
- PassDean DeNobile 13/26, 113 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKente Edwards 10 CAR, 27 YDS
- RecEthan Hosak 2 REC, 30 YDS
Bowling Green
- PassDrew Pyne 12/18, 109 YDS
- RushKaderris Roberts 12 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecRJ Garcia II 2 REC, 32 YDS
15.2sper snap · faster the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
120
Points / snap
0.28
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBGSU up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
96%
BGSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Lafayette vs. Bowling Green?
Lafayette 7, Bowling Green 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BGSU) was correct.
LAFA
BGSU
22%
Success rate
39%
0.01
EPA / pass
0.15
-0.19
EPA / rush
-0.11
21%
Early-down success
40%
22%
Pass success
43%
23%
Rush success
37%
3%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
5%
27%
Stuffed rush rate
15%
55%
Pass rate
34%
6.1
Avg 3rd-down distance
4.7
LAFA
6.1 yards to go on 3rd down
58 scrimmage snaps
BGSU
4.7 yards to go on 3rd down
62 scrimmage snaps
| LAFA | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 177 | Total yards | 266 |
| 118 | Passing yards | 109 |
| 59 | Rushing yards | 157 |
| 11 | First downs | 17 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 16/29 | Comp/Att | 12/18 |
| 4.1 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-35 | Penalties | 4-37 |
| 27:40 | Possession | 32:20 |
LAFA
10/11 with the model
−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob
BGSU
6/8 with the model
−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 12:22 LAFA punt on 4th & 4 at BGSU 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.42 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishLAFA 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →BGSU 5/11 scoring drives
BGSUTD0 pl, 0 yds· own 2Q1
LAFAPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 21Q1
BGSUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 30Q1
LAFADOWNS9 pl, 42 yds· own 21Q1
BGSUFG17 pl, 51 yds· own 37Q1
LAFAPUNT4 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q2
BGSUPUNT5 pl, 25 yds· own 12Q2
LAFAPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 16Q2
BGSUDOWNS10 pl, 40 yds· opp 45Q2
LAFAPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 5Q2
BGSUTD6 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q2
LAFAEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2
LAFAPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
BGSUFG7 pl, 27 yds· own 35Q3
LAFATD14 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
BGSUFG5 pl, 21 yds· opp 42Q3
LAFADOWNS6 pl, 16 yds· own 38Q3
BGSUPUNT4 pl, 3 yds· own 46Q4
BGSUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 46Q4
LAFAPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 3Q4
BGSUFG8 pl, 53 yds· own 29Q4
LAFAPUNT6 pl, 7 yds· own 24Q4
- Q4 4:47BGSUJackson Kleather 35 Yd Field Goal7–26
- Q3 1:10BGSUJackson Kleather 39 Yd Field Goal7–23
- Q3 3:39LAFAElijah Steward 5 Yd pass from Dean DeNobile (Jack Simonetta Kick)7–20
- Q3 10:11BGSUJackson Kleather 56 Yd Field Goal0–20
- Q2 0:20BGSUMar'Kel Porter 4 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)0–17
- Q2 14:15BGSUJackson Kleather 30 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q1 14:49BGSUCameron Pettaway 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Jackson Kleather Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →