Kennesaw State vs. Indiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KENNTeam statsIU
- Q4 6:03IUCharlie Becker 6 Yd pass from Alberto Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)9–56
- Q4 13:17IUE.J. Williams Jr. 8 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)9–49
- Q3 2:53IUElijah Sarratt 20 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)9–42
- Q3 6:05IUOmar Cooper Jr. 75 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)9–35
- Q3 8:43IUElijah Sarratt 3 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)9–28
- Q3 12:39KENNDaniel Kinney 50 Yd Field Goal 9–21
- Q2 0:28KENNDaniel Kinney 29 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 3:40IULee Beebe Jr. 11 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)3–21
- Q2 5:46KENNDaniel Kinney 28 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 3:45IUElijah Sarratt 9 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:28IURiley Nowakowski 1 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- KENN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and IU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 5.4
- KENN lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 19% explosive on a 30% success rate
- PassAmari Odom 10/16, 176 YDS, 1 INT
- RushColeman Bennett 5 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecLyndon Ravare 2 REC, 72 YDS
- PassFernando Mendoza 18/25, 245 YDS, 4 TD
- RushLee Beebe Jr. 11 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- RecElijah Sarratt 9 REC, 97 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIU up 33 entering the 4th quarter. Across 457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Kennesaw State vs. Indiana?
Kennesaw State 9, Indiana 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
| KENN | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 271 | Total yards | 593 |
| 182 | Passing yards | 280 |
| 89 | Rushing yards | 313 |
| 10 | First downs | 28 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 5-9 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 13/21 | Comp/Att | 21/28 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 10.0 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 8.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-34 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 27:30 | Possession | 32:30 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:36 IU go for it on 4th & 12 at KENN 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.95 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:03IUCharlie Becker 6 Yd pass from Alberto Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)9–56
- Q4 13:17IUE.J. Williams Jr. 8 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)9–49
- Q3 2:53IUElijah Sarratt 20 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)9–42
- Q3 6:05IUOmar Cooper Jr. 75 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)9–35
- Q3 8:43IUElijah Sarratt 3 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)9–28
- Q3 12:39KENNDaniel Kinney 50 Yd Field Goal 9–21
- Q2 0:28KENNDaniel Kinney 29 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 3:40IULee Beebe Jr. 11 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)3–21
- Q2 5:46KENNDaniel Kinney 28 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 3:45IUElijah Sarratt 9 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:28IURiley Nowakowski 1 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IU Elo 1800, KENN Elo 1269 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IU -23.6 (93% to win) — 11.9 points clear of KENN's market line of -35.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| KENN | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.9 (#76) | CORE overall | +35.3 (#3) |
| +2 / +6 | offense / defense | +19 / -17 |
| 2.14 | points / drive | 3.69 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 0.94 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →