Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Sat, Sep 6, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENN | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| IU | 14 | 7 | 21 | 14 | 56 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (IU Elo 1800, KENN Elo 1269) plus home-field advantage. That projects IU -23.6 (96% to win) — 11.9 points of value on KENN versus the market line of -35.5.
IU up 33 entering the 4th quarter. Across 457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kennesaw State 9, Indiana 56.
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had IU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Omar Cooper Jr. run for 75 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
Amari Odom pass complete to Lyndon Ravare for 34 yds to the IU 25
Amari Odom pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for 32 yds to the IU 42 for a 1ST down
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →