Kansas vs. UCF: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KUTeam statsUCF
- Q3 3:00KULeshon Williams 2 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)27–20
- Q3 4:01KULaith Marjan 41 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q3 7:07KULaith Marjan 33 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q2 0:05UCFNoe Ruelas 38 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q2 1:55KULeshon Williams 4 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)14–17
- Q2 7:49UCFNoe Ruelas 38 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 10:38KULeshon Williams 1 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)7–14
- Q2 14:55UCFMyles Montgomery 3 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:15UCFMyles Montgomery 29 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UCF played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and KU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 5.6
- PassJalon Daniels 18/26, 235 YDS
- RushLeshon Williams 12 CAR, 58 YDS, 3 TD
- RecCam Pickett 5 REC, 64 YDS
- PassTayven Jackson 14/23, 97 YDS
- RushMyles Montgomery 22 CAR, 110 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDuane Thomas Jr. 5 REC, 42 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 3:00KU +37%
Leshon Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
- Q2 1:55KU +21%
Leshon Williams run for 4 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
- Q3 4:01KU +21%
Laith Marjan 41 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 8:15UCF +18%
Myles Montgomery run for 29 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
- Q2 10:38KU +16%
Leshon Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
- Q2 14:55UCF +15%
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas vs. UCF?
Kansas 27, UCF 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KU) was correct.
| KU | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 356 | Total yards | 375 |
| 235 | Passing yards | 176 |
| 121 | Rushing yards | 199 |
| 15 | First downs | 21 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 4-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 18/26 | Comp/Att | 22/37 |
| 9.0 | Yards per pass | 4.8 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-41 | Penalties | 6-45 |
| 30:01 | Possession | 29:59 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:14 UCF punt on 4th & 21 at KU 40. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 3:00KULeshon Williams 2 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)27–20
- Q3 4:01KULaith Marjan 41 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q3 7:07KULaith Marjan 33 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q2 0:05UCFNoe Ruelas 38 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q2 1:55KULeshon Williams 4 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)14–17
- Q2 7:49UCFNoe Ruelas 38 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 10:38KULeshon Williams 1 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)7–14
- Q2 14:55UCFMyles Montgomery 3 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:15UCFMyles Montgomery 29 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCF Elo 1579, KU Elo 1664 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCF +1 (49% to win) — 3.0 points clear of UCF's market line of +4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| KU | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.9 (#57) | CORE overall | -5.0 (#80) |
| +10 / +6 | offense / defense | -6 / -1 |
| 2.34 | points / drive | 1.73 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →