Kansas
3-2·Big 12· Elo 1664
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KU | 0 | 14 | 13 | 0 | 27 |
| UCF | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UCF Elo 1579, KU Elo 1664) plus home-field advantage. That projects UCF +1 (47% to win) — 3.0 points of value on UCF versus the market line of +4.
KU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kansas 27, UCF 20.
Yes — the model's pick (KU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had KU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Cam Fancher run for no gain to the KU 1
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 46 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST down
Myles Montgomery run for 29 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
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