| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KU | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| TTU | 18 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TTU Elo 1785, KU Elo 1671) plus home-field advantage. That projects TTU -7 (70% to win) — 6.5 points of value on KU versus the market line of -13.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = KU ahead, below = TTU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
TTU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kansas 17, Texas Tech 42.
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TTU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Cameron Dickey run for 71 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK)
Cameron Dickey run for 55 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK)
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 24 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
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