Kansas vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KUTeam statsARIZ
- Q4 0:39ARIZQuincy Craig 24 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)20–24
- Q3 5:51KULaith Marjan 50 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 11:23ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 41 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 0:23ARIZQuincy Craig 8 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)17–14
- Q2 4:15KULaith Marjan 46 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 11:17KUEmmanuel Henderson Jr. 24 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)14–7
- Q1 0:32KUJalon Daniels 1 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:16ARIZSam Olson 16 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJalon Daniels 15/29, 199 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJalon Daniels 14 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEmmanuel Henderson Jr. 5 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- PassNoah Fifita 16/31, 158 YDS, 2 TD
- RushIsmail Mahdi 7 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecGiovanni Richardson 2 REC, 38 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:07ARIZ +25%
Shotgun #6 J.Daniels pass incomplete deep middle to #10 L.Wentz thrown to ARIZ10 broken up by #43 D.Johnson PENALTY KAN UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#9 D.Hishaw Jr.)…
- Q1 7:16ARIZ +17%
Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #84 S.Olson caught at KAN00, for 16 yards to the KAN00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:23ARIZ +13%
Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #24 Q.Craig caught at KAN06, for 8 yards to the KAN00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 11:17KU +11%
Shotgun #6 J.Daniels pass complete deep right to #1 E.Henderson Jr. caught at ARIZ00, for 24 yards to the ARIZ00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 4:15KU +7%
#99 L.Marjan field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD
- Q3 11:23ARIZ +6%
#19 M.Salgado-Medina field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas vs. Arizona?
Kansas 20, Arizona 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ARIZ) was correct.
| KU | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 369 | Total yards | 323 |
| 199 | Passing yards | 158 |
| 170 | Rushing yards | 165 |
| 19 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 15/30 | Comp/Att | 16/31 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-55 | Penalties | 3-32 |
| 35:30 | Possession | 24:30 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:48 ARIZ punt on 4th & 1 at ARIZ 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:39ARIZQuincy Craig 24 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)20–24
- Q3 5:51KULaith Marjan 50 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 11:23ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 41 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 0:23ARIZQuincy Craig 8 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)17–14
- Q2 4:15KULaith Marjan 46 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 11:17KUEmmanuel Henderson Jr. 24 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)14–7
- Q1 0:32KUJalon Daniels 1 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:16ARIZSam Olson 16 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARIZ Elo 1578, KU Elo 1556 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ -3.3 (60% to win) — 2.7 points clear of KU's market line of -6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| KU | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.9 (#57) | CORE overall | +12.4 (#33) |
| +10 / +6 | offense / defense | +5 / -8 |
| 2.34 | points / drive | 2.61 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 1.75 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →