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Kansas vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 8, 8:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KU | 7 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 20 |
| ARIZ | 7 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ARIZ 1578
KU 1556
Projected spread
ARIZ -3.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
ARIZ
60% to win
Market spread
ARIZ -6
sportsbook line
Model edge
KU
2.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
60%
ARIZ · market 66%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARIZ Elo 1578, KU Elo 1556) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ -3.3 (60% to win) — 2.7 points of value on KU versus the market line of -6.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ARIZ (top)KU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARIZ 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
KU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedARIZ
Offense
0.25
PPA / play
0.1948%
Success rate
43%1.18
Explosiveness
1.293.94
Pts / opportunity
3.6184%
Power success
74%Defense
0.25
PPA allowed / play
0.1042%
Success rate allowed
39%1.43
Explosiveness allowed
1.2018%
Havoc rate
20%22%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- ARIZ pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. KU pass defense (0.39 allowed) — edge KU.
- KU pass offense (0.32 PPA) vs. ARIZ pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge KU.
- KU rush offense (0.22 PPA) vs. ARIZ rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge KU.
Drive-by-drive
KU 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ARIZ 4/11 scoring drives
ARIZPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1
KUPUNT6 pl, 16 yds· own 21Q1
ARIZTD8 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q1
KUPUNT4 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1
ARIZPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 15Q1
KUTD5 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q1
ARIZPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
KUTD6 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q2
ARIZPUNT5 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2
KUFG8 pl, 29 yds· own 43Q2
ARIZTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
KUEND1 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q2
KUPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3
ARIZFG6 pl, 62 yds· own 15Q3
KUFG10 pl, 43 yds· own 25Q3
ARIZPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q3
KUPUNT7 pl, 21 yds· own 34Q3
ARIZPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 20Q4
KUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 23Q4
ARIZPUNT5 pl, 19 yds· own 24Q4
KUMISS12 pl, 67 yds· own 22Q4
ARIZTD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4
KUEND8 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
KU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
KU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas vs. Arizona?
Kansas 20, Arizona 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ARIZ) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ARIZ pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.