Sat, Nov 15, 5:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| OKST | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (OKST Elo 1049, KSU Elo 1705) plus home-field advantage. That projects OKST +23.8 (4% to win) — 4.3 points of value on KSU versus the market line of +19.5.
KSU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kansas State 14, Oklahoma State 6.
Yes — the model's pick (KSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had KSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(08:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 T.Howland pass intercepted by #4 D.Cobbs at KSU05 #4 D.Cobbs return 17 yards to the KSU22 (#17 G.Freeman)
(02:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass complete short right to #7 S.Rigby caught at KSU44, for 25 yards to the KSU31 (#25 Z.Rich; #4 D.Cobbs), 1ST DOWN
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete deep middle to #1 J.Brown caught at OSU35, for 30 yards to the OSU31 (#23 K.Harris), 1ST DOWN
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