Boone Pickens StadiumConference gameClosing line: KSU +-19.5 · OKST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| OKST | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Team stats
KSUthis game · better side highlightedOKST
284
Total yards
373177
Passing yards
226107
Rushing yards
14714
First downs
234-15 · 27%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
OKST 1049
KSU 1705
Projected spread
OKST +23.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
KSU
96% to win
Market spread
OKST +19.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
KSU
4.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
4%
OKST · market 11%
Our model blends Elo ratings (OKST Elo 1049, KSU Elo 1705) plus home-field advantage. That projects OKST +23.8 (4% to win) — 4.3 points of value on KSU versus the market line of +19.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
OKST (top)KSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: OKST 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- KSU pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. OKST pass defense (0.44 allowed) — edge OKST.
- OKST rush offense (-0.04 PPA) vs. KSU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge KSU.
- OKST pass offense (0.07 PPA) vs. KSU pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge KSU.
Drive-by-drive
KSU 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →OKST 2/11 scoring drives
OKSTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1
KSUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 19Q1
OKSTFG8 pl, 39 yds· own 31Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
KSU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
53%
KSU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State?
Kansas State 14, Oklahoma State 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had KSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.