Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KSUTeam statsOKST
- Q4 12:31KSUJoe Jackson 15 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)14–6
- Q2 7:07KSUJayce Brown 34 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–6
- Q2 14:55OKSTLogan Ward 47 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 8:37OKSTLogan Ward 47 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassAvery Johnson 15/28, 177 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJoe Jackson 14 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJayce Brown 3 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- PassZane Flores 24/36, 233 YDS, 2 INT
- RushRodney Fields Jr. 14 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecTerrill Davis 4 REC, 55 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKSU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 12:31KSU +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 15 yards gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY OSU Illegal Substitution declined
- Q2 7:07KSU +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short middle to #1 J.Brown caught at OSU22, for 34 yards to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 14:55OKST +8%
#19 L.Ward field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD
- Q3 1:31KSU +7%
No Huddle #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the KSU37 (#6 B.Rawls; #5 B.McCoy Jr.)
- Q3 4:57OKST +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the OSU10 (#32 D.Purnell)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State?
Kansas State 14, Oklahoma State 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KSU) was correct.
| KSU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 284 | Total yards | 373 |
| 177 | Passing yards | 226 |
| 107 | Rushing yards | 147 |
| 14 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 15/28 | Comp/Att | 25/38 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 5.9 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 4-26 |
| 28:53 | Possession | 31:07 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:15 OKST punt on 4th & 1 at OKST 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:31KSUJoe Jackson 15 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)14–6
- Q2 7:07KSUJayce Brown 34 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–6
- Q2 14:55OKSTLogan Ward 47 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 8:37OKSTLogan Ward 47 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OKST Elo 1049, KSU Elo 1705 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OKST +23.8 (7% to win) — 4.3 points clear of KSU's market line of +19.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOklahoma State leads 43–26 · Kansas State has won 2 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| KSU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.7 (#49) | CORE overall | -22.9 (#130) |
| +3 / -4 | offense / defense | -12 / +11 |
| 2.44 | points / drive | 1.02 |
| 2.09 | allowed / drive | 2.92 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →