L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMU | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
| LOU | 0 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 28 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
LOU 1706
JMU 1627
Projected spread
LOU -5.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
LOU
66% to win
Market spread
LOU -15
sportsbook line
Model edge
JMU
9.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
66%
LOU · market 83%
Our model blends Elo ratings (LOU Elo 1706, JMU Elo 1627) plus home-field advantage. That projects LOU -5.6 (66% to win) — 9.4 points of value on JMU versus the market line of -15.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
LOU (top)JMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: LOU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- JMU pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. LOU pass defense (0.06 allowed) — edge JMU.
- LOU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. JMU rush defense (-0.00 allowed) — edge LOU.
- JMU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. LOU rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge JMU.
Drive-by-drive
JMU 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →LOU 4/11 scoring drives
LOUPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 25Q1
JMUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· opp 48Q1
LOUDOWNS7 pl, 19 yds· own 20Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
LOU win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of James Madison vs. Louisville?
James Madison 14, Louisville 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LOU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had LOU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.