James Madison vs. Louisville: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
JMUTeam statsLOU
- Q4 3:31LOUIsaac Brown 78 Yd Run (Miller Moss Pass to Dacari Collins for Two-Point Conversion)14–28
- Q4 13:05LOUAJ Green 0 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)14–20
- Q3 8:37LOUChris Bell 64 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Miller Moss Run for Two-Point Conversion)14–14
- Q3 10:10JMUMatthew Sluka 8 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)14–6
- Q2 0:09LOUCooper Ranvier 38 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q2 5:21LOUCooper Ranvier 22 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 4:01JMULacota Dippre 3 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassAlonza Barnett III 15/25, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMatthew Sluka 21 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLandon Ellis 3 REC, 55 YDS
- PassMiller Moss 13/23, 151 YDS, 1 TD
- RushIsaac Brown 12 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChris Bell 4 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:37LOU +31%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 64 yds for a TD (M. Moss Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q4 13:05LOU +28%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Clev Lubin for a loss of 8 yards Alonza Barnett III fumbled, forced by Clev Lubin, recovered by LOU AJ Green, return for 0 yards for a TD…
- Q3 10:10JMU +26%
Matthew Sluka run for 8 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
- Q4 3:07LOU +21%
James Madison Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the JMU 24
- Q1 4:01JMU +19%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Lacota Dippre for 3 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
- Q4 13:05LOU +13%
Louisville Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the LOU 20
FAQ
What was the final score of James Madison vs. Louisville?
James Madison 14, Louisville 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LOU) was correct.
| JMU | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 263 | Total yards | 264 |
| 137 | Passing yards | 151 |
| 126 | Rushing yards | 113 |
| 19 | First downs | 12 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 18/31 | Comp/Att | 13/23 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 12-95 | Penalties | 5-49 |
| 37:12 | Possession | 22:48 |
Costliest call
Q4 15:00 LOU punt on 4th & 2 at LOU 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:31LOUIsaac Brown 78 Yd Run (Miller Moss Pass to Dacari Collins for Two-Point Conversion)14–28
- Q4 13:05LOUAJ Green 0 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)14–20
- Q3 8:37LOUChris Bell 64 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Miller Moss Run for Two-Point Conversion)14–14
- Q3 10:10JMUMatthew Sluka 8 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)14–6
- Q2 0:09LOUCooper Ranvier 38 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q2 5:21LOUCooper Ranvier 22 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 4:01JMULacota Dippre 3 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LOU Elo 1706, JMU Elo 1627 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LOU -5.6 (66% to win) — 9.4 points clear of JMU's market line of -15. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| JMU | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.6 (#13) | CORE overall | +18.6 (#18) |
| +5 / -16 | offense / defense | +5 / -14 |
| 3.06 | points / drive | 2.32 |
| 1.42 | allowed / drive | 1.71 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →