Jacksonville State vs. UTEP: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
JXSTTeam statsUTEP
- Q4 0:53JXSTGarrison Rippa 45 Yd Field Goal 30–27
- Q4 2:15UTEPEric Willis III 19 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)27–27
- Q4 10:01JXSTCam Cook 1 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)27–20
- Q3 6:38UTEPSkyler Locklear 10 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)20–20
- Q2 0:39JXSTGarrison Rippa 36 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q2 3:09UTEPSkyler Locklear 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–13
- Q2 8:12JXSTCaleb Nix 93 Yd Interception Return (Garrison Rippa Kick)17–7
- Q1 0:53JXSTGarrison Rippa 30 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 10:56UTEPWondame Davis Jr. 75 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:07JXSTDeondre Johnson 77 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- JXST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UTEP did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.4 vs 3rd & 5.9
- PassCaden Creel 15/31, 181 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCaden Creel 13 CAR, 134 YDS
- RecDeondre Johnson 1 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- PassSkyler Locklear 16/32, 244 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushSkyler Locklear 17 CAR, 82 YDS, 2 TD
- RecWondame Davis Jr. 5 REC, 166 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTEP up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:15UTEP +42%
Eric Willis III 19 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)
- Q4 10:01JXST +40%
Cam Cook 1 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)
- Q4 1:50JXST +38%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short middle thrown to UTEP30 QB hurried by #12 D.Thompson PENALTY UTEP Holding (#2 X.Smith) 10 yards from UTEP41 to UTEP31, 1ST DO…
- Q3 6:38UTEP +25%
Skyler Locklear 10 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)
- Q4 0:53JXST +24%
Garrison Rippa 45 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 4:00JXST +21%
#87 C.Donaghy punt 27 yards to the UTEP26
FAQ
What was the final score of Jacksonville State vs. UTEP?
Jacksonville State 30, UTEP 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
| JXST | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| 456 | Total yards | 370 |
| 181 | Passing yards | 244 |
| 275 | Rushing yards | 126 |
| 23 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 2-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 5-7 |
| 15/31 | Comp/Att | 16/32 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 7.1 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 11-66 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 30:27 | Possession | 29:33 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:16 JXST go for it on 4th & 7 at JXST 42. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:53JXSTGarrison Rippa 45 Yd Field Goal 30–27
- Q4 2:15UTEPEric Willis III 19 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)27–27
- Q4 10:01JXSTCam Cook 1 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)27–20
- Q3 6:38UTEPSkyler Locklear 10 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)20–20
- Q2 0:39JXSTGarrison Rippa 36 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q2 3:09UTEPSkyler Locklear 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–13
- Q2 8:12JXSTCaleb Nix 93 Yd Interception Return (Garrison Rippa Kick)17–7
- Q1 0:53JXSTGarrison Rippa 30 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 10:56UTEPWondame Davis Jr. 75 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:07JXSTDeondre Johnson 77 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTEP Elo 1220, JXST Elo 1525 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTEP +9.8 (27% to win) — 8.3 points clear of JXST's market line of +1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| JXST | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.7 (#99) | CORE overall | -26.7 (#131) |
| -4 / +7 | offense / defense | -26 / +1 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 1.32 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 2.36 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -12 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →