← All games
Jacksonville State vs. UTEP: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 8, 8:00 PM
Sun BowlConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JXST | 10 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 30 |
| UTEP | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 27 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UTEP 1220
JXST 1525
Projected spread
UTEP +9.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
JXST
77% to win
Market spread
UTEP +1.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
JXST
8.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
23%
UTEP · market 58%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UTEP Elo 1220, JXST Elo 1525) plus home-field advantage. That projects UTEP +9.8 (23% to win) — 8.3 points of value on JXST versus the market line of +1.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UTEP (top)JXST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UTEP 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
JXST2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUTEP
Offense
0.18
PPA / play
0.0244%
Success rate
33%1.25
Explosiveness
1.463.73
Pts / opportunity
3.4268%
Power success
60%Defense
0.16
PPA allowed / play
0.1142%
Success rate allowed
39%1.31
Explosiveness allowed
1.2117%
Havoc rate
16%20%
Stuff rate
22%Key matchups · Pro
- UTEP pass offense (0.03 PPA) vs. JXST pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge JXST.
- JXST rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. UTEP rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge JXST.
- UTEP rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. JXST rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge JXST.
Drive-by-drive
JXST 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →UTEP 5/12 scoring drives
UTEPPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q1
JXSTTD4 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q1
UTEPTD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
JXSTINT9 pl, 25 yds· own 25Q1
UTEPPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 29Q1
JXSTFG13 pl, 53 yds· own 35Q1
UTEPPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1
JXSTPUNT7 pl, 36 yds· own 4Q2
UTEPTD7 pl, 43 yds· own 37Q2
UTEPTD14 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
JXSTFG5 pl, 60 yds· own 25Q2
UTEPEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2
JXSTDOWNS6 pl, 30 yds· own 17Q3
UTEPDOWNS12 pl, 49 yds· own 15Q3
UTEPTD11 pl, 47 yds· opp 47Q3
JXSTPUNT7 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3
JXSTTD7 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q4
UTEPPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q4
JXSTPUNT7 pl, 38 yds· own 9Q4
UTEPTD5 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q4
JXSTFG6 pl, 46 yds· own 25Q4
UTEPDOWNS4 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4
JXSTEND1 pl, -2 yds· opp 30Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UTEP up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
77%
UTEP went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Jacksonville State vs. UTEP?
Jacksonville State 30, UTEP 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had JXST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.