| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOWA | 7 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 34 |
| VAN | 0 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (VAN Elo 1884, IOWA Elo 1933) on a neutral field. That projects VAN +2 (44% to win) — 5.0 points of value on IOWA versus the market line of -3.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = IOWA ahead, below = VAN ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
IOWA up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Iowa 34, Vanderbilt 27.
Yes — the model's pick (IOWA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had IOWA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Tre Richardson 75 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)
(03:56) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass intercepted by #4 M.Hight at Vandy00, Touchback
(04:48) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short middle to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at Iowa50, for 51 yards to the Vandy04 (#8 C.Heard), 1ST DOWN
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