Iowa vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
IOWATeam statsVAN
- Q4 2:58VANBrock Taylor 37 Yd Field Goal 34–27
- Q4 4:13IOWADrew Stevens 44 Yd Field Goal 34–24
- Q4 11:19VANDiego Pavia 11 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)31–24
- Q4 13:35IOWAMark Gronowski 1 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)31–17
- Q3 1:41VANJoseph McVay 16 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)24–17
- Q3 3:54IOWADrew Stevens 47 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q3 8:37VANTre Richardson 75 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)21–10
- Q3 8:50IOWADJ Vonnahme 21 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)21–3
- Q2 0:41IOWAReece Vander Zee 10 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)14–3
- Q2 7:49VANBrock Taylor 41 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 12:55IOWAKamari Moulton 4 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = IOWA ahead, below = VAN ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassMark Gronowski 16/22, 212 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushKamari Moulton 14 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDJ Vonnahme 7 REC, 146 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDiego Pavia 25/38, 347 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDiego Pavia 15 CAR, 36 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTre Richardson 6 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa vs. Vanderbilt?
Iowa 34, Vanderbilt 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IOWA) was correct.
| IOWA | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 379 | Total yards | 398 |
| 212 | Passing yards | 347 |
| 167 | Rushing yards | 51 |
| 19 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 2-9 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 16/22 | Comp/Att | 25/38 |
| 9.6 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-53 | Penalties | 10-53 |
| 32:18 | Possession | 27:42 |
- Q4 2:58VANBrock Taylor 37 Yd Field Goal 34–27
- Q4 4:13IOWADrew Stevens 44 Yd Field Goal 34–24
- Q4 11:19VANDiego Pavia 11 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)31–24
- Q4 13:35IOWAMark Gronowski 1 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)31–17
- Q3 1:41VANJoseph McVay 16 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)24–17
- Q3 3:54IOWADrew Stevens 47 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q3 8:37VANTre Richardson 75 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)21–10
- Q3 8:50IOWADJ Vonnahme 21 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)21–3
- Q2 0:41IOWAReece Vander Zee 10 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)14–3
- Q2 7:49VANBrock Taylor 41 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 12:55IOWAKamari Moulton 4 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1884, IOWA Elo 1933 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects VAN +2 (46% to win) — 5.0 points clear of IOWA's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| IOWA | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.7 (#24) | CORE overall | +25.4 (#8) |
| +4 / -13 | offense / defense | +28 / +2 |
| 2.62 | points / drive | 3.85 |
| 1.35 | allowed / drive | 2.40 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 16% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →