Illinois vs. Washington: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ILLTeam statsWASH
- Q4 8:16WASHDecker DeGraaf 2 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)25–42
- Q4 11:07ILLJordan Anderson 1 Yd Run (Luke Altmyer Pass to Cole Rusk for Two-Point Conversion)25–35
- Q4 14:39WASHDenzel Boston 6 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)17–35
- Q3 7:45WASHJonah Coleman 7 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)17–28
- Q2 0:40WASHJonah Coleman 12 Yd pass from Denzel Boston (Grady Gross Kick)17–21
- Q2 1:55ILLTanner Arkin 5 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)17–14
- Q2 7:26ILLCollin Dixon 2 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)10–14
- Q1 0:46WASHDezmen Roebuck 13 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)3–14
- Q1 5:05ILLDavid Olano 33 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:31WASHDezmen Roebuck 13 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassLuke Altmyer 22/34, 199 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushLuke Altmyer 7 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecHank Beatty 6 REC, 73 YDS
- PassDemond Williams Jr. 26/33, 280 YDS, 4 TD
- RushJonah Coleman 14 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDenzel Boston 10 REC, 153 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWASH up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:55ILL +27%
Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short middle to #85 T.Arkin caught at WASH00, for 5 yards to the WASH00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 2:30WASH +22%
Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WASH05 (#12 A.McLaughlin)
- Q3 7:45WASH +22%
#1 J.Coleman rush right for 7 yards gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 7:26ILL +16%
#9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #17 C.Dixon caught at WASH00, for 2 yards to the WASH00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 0:46WASH +15%
Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short left to #81 D.Roebuck caught at ILL00, for 13 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 14:39WASH +9%
#2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short right to #12 D.Boston caught at ILL00, for 6 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Illinois vs. Washington?
Illinois 25, Washington 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WASH) was correct.
| ILL | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| 337 | Total yards | 449 |
| 199 | Passing yards | 292 |
| 138 | Rushing yards | 157 |
| 22 | First downs | 27 |
| 9-12 | 3rd down | 9-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 22/34 | Comp/Att | 27/34 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-82 | Penalties | 8-89 |
| 30:21 | Possession | 29:39 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:21 WASH punt on 4th & 1 at WASH 20. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:16WASHDecker DeGraaf 2 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)25–42
- Q4 11:07ILLJordan Anderson 1 Yd Run (Luke Altmyer Pass to Cole Rusk for Two-Point Conversion)25–35
- Q4 14:39WASHDenzel Boston 6 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)17–35
- Q3 7:45WASHJonah Coleman 7 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)17–28
- Q2 0:40WASHJonah Coleman 12 Yd pass from Denzel Boston (Grady Gross Kick)17–21
- Q2 1:55ILLTanner Arkin 5 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)17–14
- Q2 7:26ILLCollin Dixon 2 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)10–14
- Q1 0:46WASHDezmen Roebuck 13 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)3–14
- Q1 5:05ILLDavid Olano 33 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:31WASHDezmen Roebuck 13 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WASH Elo 1674, ILL Elo 1589 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WASH -5.8 (66% to win) — 2.3 points clear of WASH's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#123 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #44 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Washington leads 8–4 · Washington has won 5 straight · 17% have been one-possession games
| ILL | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.1 (#36) | CORE overall | +21.7 (#11) |
| +10 / -1 | offense / defense | +13 / -9 |
| 2.76 | points / drive | 3.06 |
| 2.56 | allowed / drive | 1.93 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →