| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 3 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 25 |
| WASH | 14 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WASH Elo 1674, ILL Elo 1589) plus home-field advantage. That projects WASH -5.8 (67% to win) — 2.3 points of value on WASH versus the market line of -3.5.
WASH up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Illinois 25, Washington 42.
Yes — the model's pick (WASH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had WASH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 1st quarter.
(06:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass intercepted by #2 R.Clark at WASH11 #2 R.Clark return 0 yards to the WASH11 (#80 H.Beatty)
End of 2nd quarter.
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