Illinois State vs. Oklahoma: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Illinois State

03

Oklahoma

▸0035

Final

Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)

	1	2	3	4	T
ILLI	0	0	3	0	3
OU	7	14	0	14	35

ILLITeam statsOU

151Total yards495

34Pass392

117Rush103

8First downs23

1-113rd down4-10

0Turnovers2

27:04Possession32:56

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:33OUKeontez Lewis 20 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)3–35
• Q4 14:52OUKeontez Lewis 28 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)3–28
• Q3 6:26ILLIMatt Maldonado 33 Yd Field Goal 3–21
• Q2 0:51OUTory Blaylock 5 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)0–21
• Q2 11:50OUDeion Burks 27 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)0–14
• Q1 0:39OUJohn Mateer 7 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

OU −39

Against the number

ILLI covered

line OU −39

What the numbers say

• ILLI played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 6.0

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

OU 100%50%ILLI 100%

Kickoff136 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

OU (top)ILLI (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: OU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

OU −39

Closing total

61.0

Model line

—

Actual result

ILLI 3 – 35 OU

Leaders

Illinois State

• PassTommy Rittenhouse 6/13, 22 YDS
• RushWenkers Wright 7 CAR, 50 YDS
• RecEddie Kasper 1 REC, 10 YDS

Oklahoma

• PassJohn Mateer 30/37, 392 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
• RushTory Blaylock 8 CAR, 42 YDS, 1 TD
• RecKeontez Lewis 9 REC, 119 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

30.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

119

Points / snap

0.32

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

OU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

97%

OU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WWisconsin vs Buffalo38-17WKansas State vs Troy42-13WTCU vs Nicholls41-6WLafayette vs Columbia24-3WTulane vs Southern Miss21-3

Fourth downs

15 calls

ILLI gave up 0.3 points to the model on fourth down.ILLI 8/9 · OU 5/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Illinois State vs. Oklahoma?

Illinois State 3, Oklahoma 35.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (OU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

ILLI

OU

21%

Success rate

49%

-0.44

EPA / pass

0.74

-0.03

EPA / rush

0.15

26%

Early-down success

48%

9%

Pass success

54%

33%

Rush success

42%

4%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

17%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

24%

49%

Pass rate

54%

9.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.0

ILLI

9.2 yards to go on 3rd down

47 scrimmage snaps

OU

6.0 yards to go on 3rd down

72 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

ILLI		OU
151	Total yards	495
34	Passing yards	392
117	Rushing yards	103
8	First downs	23
1-11	3rd down	4-10
0-0	4th down	2-3
10/20	Comp/Att	30/37
1.7	Yards per pass	10.6
4.5	Yards per rush	3.2
0	Turnovers	2
2-10	Penalties	6-35
27:04	Possession	32:56

Fourth downs

15 calls

ILLI

8/9 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

OU

5/5 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q1 5:43 ILLI punt on 4th & 14 at OU 41. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.30 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

ILLI 1/11 scoring drives← own end zone →OU 5/11 scoring drives

OUPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1

ILLIPUNT6 pl, 24 yds· own 14Q1

OUFUM3 pl, 23 yds· own 37Q1

ILLIPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 40Q1

OUTD10 pl, 94 yds· own 6Q1

ILLIPUNT7 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1

OUTD4 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q2

ILLIPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 18Q2

OUTD15 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q2

ILLIEND2 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2

ILLIPUNT5 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q3

OUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 12Q3

ILLIPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· midfieldQ3

OUINT3 pl, 9 yds· own 4Q3

ILLIFG4 pl, 7 yds· opp 22Q3

OUTD12 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q3

ILLIPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q4

OUDOWNS6 pl, 24 yds· own 36Q4

ILLIPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 40Q4

OUTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

ILLIPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q4

OUEND2 pl, 3 yds· own 2Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:33OUKeontez Lewis 20 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)3–35
• Q4 14:52OUKeontez Lewis 28 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)3–28
• Q3 6:26ILLIMatt Maldonado 33 Yd Field Goal 3–21
• Q2 0:51OUTory Blaylock 5 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)0–21
• Q2 11:50OUDeion Burks 27 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)0–14
• Q1 0:39OUJohn Mateer 7 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →