Idaho State vs. New Mexico: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Idaho State0-1
New Mexico0-1
▸Final
University Stadium (NM)
IDAHTeam statsUNM
386Total yards371
265Pass155
121Rush216
21First downs20
8-153rd down6-13
1Turnovers1
30:31Possession29:29
- Q4 1:48UNMScottre Humphrey 1 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)22–32
- Q4 7:17UNMDamon Bankston 1 Yd Run (Jack Layne Pass to Dorian Thomas for Two-Point Conversion)22–25
- Q4 10:40IDAHTytan Mason 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–17
- Q3 0:13UNMLuke Drzewiecki 21 Yd Field Goal 16–17
- Q3 5:25IDAHTrajan Sinatra 33 Yd Field Goal 16–14
- Q3 10:30IDAHTrajan Sinatra 56 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q2 1:03IDAHMichael Shulikov 30 Yd pass from Davis Harsin (Trajan Sinatra Kick)10–14
- Q2 7:34UNMScottre Humphrey 61 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)3–14
- Q2 8:56IDAHTrajan Sinatra 27 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 0:21UNMJack Layne 7 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
UNM −17.5
Against the number
IDAH covered
line UNM −17.5
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
UNM (top)IDAH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UNM 100%
Closing line
UNM −17.5
Closing total
60.5
Model line
—
Actual result
IDAH 22 – 32 UNM
Idaho State
- PassDavis Harsin 17/26, 181 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDavis Harsin 11 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecMichael Shulikov 4 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
New Mexico
- PassJack Layne 13/21, 155 YDS
- RushScottre Humphrey 18 CAR, 141 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDorian Thomas 5 REC, 56 YDS
14.9sper snap · faster the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
182
Points / snap
0.30
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNM up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
65%
UNM went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Idaho State vs. New Mexico?
Idaho State 22, New Mexico 32.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNM) was correct.
IDAH
UNM
44%
Success rate
42%
0.09
EPA / pass
0.09
-0.04
EPA / rush
0.32
41%
Early-down success
38%
38%
Pass success
38%
50%
Rush success
44%
8%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
14%
25%
Stuffed rush rate
10%
51%
Pass rate
41%
7.9
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.9
IDAH
7.9 yards to go on 3rd down
98 scrimmage snaps
UNM
6.9 yards to go on 3rd down
84 scrimmage snaps
| IDAH | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 386 | Total yards | 371 |
| 265 | Passing yards | 155 |
| 121 | Rushing yards | 216 |
| 21 | First downs | 20 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 28/39 | Comp/Att | 13/21 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-99 | Penalties | 2-13 |
| 30:31 | Possession | 29:29 |
IDAH
8/8 with the model
nothing given up
UNM
8/9 with the model
−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q3 0:13 UNM field goal on 4th & 4 at IDAH 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.34 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishIDAH 3/8 scoring drives← own end zone →UNM 5/9 scoring drives
IDAHPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
UNMPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 26Q1
IDAHINT13 pl, 63 yds· own 29Q1
UNMTD10 pl, 98 yds· own 2Q1
UNMTD3 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q2
IDAHFG13 pl, 70 yds· own 20Q1
IDAHPUNT4 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
UNMDOWNS4 pl, 6 yds· own 49Q3
IDAHFG6 pl, 16 yds· own 45Q3
IDAHFG7 pl, 27 yds· opp 43Q3
UNMFG9 pl, 45 yds· opp 49Q3
UNMTD9 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q4
IDAHPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q4
IDAHDOWNS4 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q4
UNMPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 8Q3
UNMUncateg2 pl, -2 yds· opp 19Q4
UNMTD9 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q4
- Q4 1:48UNMScottre Humphrey 1 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)22–32
- Q4 7:17UNMDamon Bankston 1 Yd Run (Jack Layne Pass to Dorian Thomas for Two-Point Conversion)22–25
- Q4 10:40IDAHTytan Mason 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–17
- Q3 0:13UNMLuke Drzewiecki 21 Yd Field Goal 16–17
- Q3 5:25IDAHTrajan Sinatra 33 Yd Field Goal 16–14
- Q3 10:30IDAHTrajan Sinatra 56 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q2 1:03IDAHMichael Shulikov 30 Yd pass from Davis Harsin (Trajan Sinatra Kick)10–14
- Q2 7:34UNMScottre Humphrey 61 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)3–14
- Q2 8:56IDAHTrajan Sinatra 27 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 0:21UNMJack Layne 7 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →