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Houston vs. Oregon State: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 27, 2:30 AM
Reser Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 27 |
| ORST | 7 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ORST 1297
HOU 1497
Projected spread
ORST +5.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
HOU
66% to win
Market spread
ORST +12
sportsbook line
Model edge
ORST
6.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
34%
ORST · market 21%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ORST Elo 1297, HOU Elo 1497) plus home-field advantage. That projects ORST +5.6 (34% to win) — 6.4 points of value on ORST versus the market line of +12.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ORST (top)HOU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ORST 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
HOU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedORST
Offense
0.12
PPA / play
0.0542%
Success rate
42%1.23
Explosiveness
1.053.55
Pts / opportunity
2.8973%
Power success
77%Defense
0.11
PPA allowed / play
0.1842%
Success rate allowed
38%1.13
Explosiveness allowed
1.4416%
Havoc rate
17%20%
Stuff rate
22%Key matchups · Pro
- HOU rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. ORST rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge ORST.
- ORST pass offense (0.11 PPA) vs. HOU pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge HOU.
- ORST rush offense (0.01 PPA) vs. HOU rush defense (0.05 allowed) — edge HOU.
Drive-by-drive
HOU 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ORST 4/13 scoring drives
ORSTPUNT8 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q1
ORSTPUNT8 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q1
HOUPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 14Q1
ORSTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· opp 45Q1
HOUINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 12Q1
ORSTTD2 pl, 7 yds· opp 7Q1
HOUPUNT7 pl, 9 yds· own 28Q1
ORSTTD11 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1
HOUTD21 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q2
HOUPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 22Q3
ORSTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 28Q3
HOUPUNT4 pl, -4 yds· own 20Q3
ORSTFG7 pl, 48 yds· own 39Q3
HOUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 37Q3
ORSTTD12 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3
HOUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 17Q4
ORSTPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 41Q4
HOUTD8 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q4
ORSTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4
HOUTD4 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q4
ORSTPUNT5 pl, 13 yds· own 19Q4
HOUPUNT4 pl, 22 yds· own 27Q4
ORSTMISS10 pl, 61 yds· own 10Q4
ORSTDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· opp 25OT
HOUFG6 pl, 19 yds· opp 25OT
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ORST up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
ORST went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston vs. Oregon State?
Houston 27, Oregon State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (HOU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had HOU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.