Houston vs. Oregon State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HOUTeam statsORST
- OT 0:00HOUEthan Sanchez 24 Yd Field Goal27–24
- Q4 3:40HOUTanner Koziol 50 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)24–24
- Q4 5:59HOUStephon Johnson 27 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)17–24
- Q4 12:34ORSTCornell Hatcher Jr. 18 Yd Run (Cameron Smith Kick)10–24
- Q3 5:31ORSTCaleb Ojeda 31 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 1:24HOUConner Weigman 1 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)10–14
- Q2 5:47HOUEthan Sanchez 25 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q2 13:43ORSTMarquis Crosby 5 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Caleb Ojeda Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:12ORSTJake Reichle 1 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- HOU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ORST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 4.5
- PassConner Weigman 20/36, 270 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDean Connors 17 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecAmare Thomas 6 REC, 104 YDS
- PassMaalik Murphy 20/33, 201 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCornell Hatcher Jr. 17 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTrent Walker 7 REC, 103 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORST up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- OT 0:00HOU +80%
E.Sanchez 24 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-J.Garza, Holder-J.Sock
- Q4 0:51ORST +56%
Anthony Hankerson run for 6 yds to the ORST 19
- OT 0:00ORST +48%
M.Murphy pass complete. Catch made by C.Hatcher for 1 yards. Tackled by HOU at HOU 24
- Q4 1:02HOU +47%
Liam Dougherty punt for 41 yds
- Q1 15:00HOU +41%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Anthony Hankerson
- Q4 4:30HOU +26%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 8 yds to the HOU 44
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston vs. Oregon State?
Houston 27, Oregon State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (HOU) was correct.
| HOU | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| 352 | Total yards | 390 |
| 270 | Passing yards | 201 |
| 82 | Rushing yards | 189 |
| 17 | First downs | 22 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 7-17 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 20/36 | Comp/Att | 20/33 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-60 | Penalties | 5-27 |
| 24:37 | Possession | 35:23 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:18 ORST punt on 4th & 5 at HOU 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.63 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00HOUEthan Sanchez 24 Yd Field Goal27–24
- Q4 3:40HOUTanner Koziol 50 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)24–24
- Q4 5:59HOUStephon Johnson 27 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)17–24
- Q4 12:34ORSTCornell Hatcher Jr. 18 Yd Run (Cameron Smith Kick)10–24
- Q3 5:31ORSTCaleb Ojeda 31 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 1:24HOUConner Weigman 1 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)10–14
- Q2 5:47HOUEthan Sanchez 25 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q2 13:43ORSTMarquis Crosby 5 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Caleb Ojeda Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:12ORSTJake Reichle 1 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORST Elo 1297, HOU Elo 1497 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORST +5.6 (36% to win) — 6.4 points clear of ORST's market line of +12. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| HOU | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9 (#65) | CORE overall | -14.8 (#106) |
| -1 / +0 | offense / defense | -9 / +6 |
| 2.41 | points / drive | 1.38 |
| 2.08 | allowed / drive | 2.61 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →