Houston vs. Baylor: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Houston8-3

▸

Baylor5-6

Final

McLane StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	7	10	7	7	31
BAY	0	9	0	15	24

HOUTeam statsBAY

417Total yards421

201Pass309

216Rush112

29First downs25

5-143rd down3-11

1Turnovers2

36:26Possession23:34

Q4 1:57HOUDean Connors 1 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)31–24
Q4 8:53BAYJosh Cameron 31 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)24–24
Q4 12:19BAYJoseph Dodds 1 Yd Run (Sawyer Robertson Run for Two-Point Conversion)24–17
Q3 4:58HOUConner Weigman 1 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)24–9
Q2 0:15BAYConnor Hawkins 30 Yd Field Goal 17–9
Q2 1:40HOUEthan Sanchez 29 Yd Field Goal 17–6
Q2 6:22BAYConnor Hawkins 34 Yd Field Goal 14–6
Q2 13:44BAYConnor Hawkins 54 Yd Field Goal 14–3
Q2 14:13HOUConner Weigman 28 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–0
Q1 7:47HOUAmare Thomas 27 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Model line

BAY −4.3

market BAY −2.5

Biggest swing

BAY +43%

Q1 13:05

Against the number

HOU covered

line BAY −2.5

BAY favored ↑50%HOU favored ↓

GridpexHOU 100%

Closing line

BAY −2.5

Closing total

57.0

Model line

BAY −4.3

Actual result

HOU 31 – 24 BAY

DraftKings, liveBAY −2.5total 57.5

Houston

PassConner Weigman 21/31, 201 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
RushConner Weigman 22 CAR, 121 YDS, 2 TD
RecAmare Thomas 9 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD

Baylor

PassSawyer Robertson 23/46, 309 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
RushJoseph Dodds 12 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
RecKobe Prentice 4 REC, 96 YDS

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

HOU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

95%

HOU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WArkansas vs Kent State28-6 WFlorida State vs Boston College31-29 WSouth Dakota vs Lamar35-6 WFlorida State vs Virginia Tech39-17 WMissouri vs South Carolina34-12

Q1 13:05BAY +43%
#94 P.Williams punt 43 yards to the UH18 fair catch by #4 M.Mews at UH18
Q4 8:53BAY +42%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete deep right to #34 J.Cameron caught at UH04, for 31 yards to the UH00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q4 1:57HOU +33%
#44 D.Connors rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BAYLOR00 TOUCHDOWN PENALTY BAYLOR Offside declined
Q4 2:43HOU +28%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short left to #9 T.Koziol thrown to BAYLOR00 PENALTY BAYLOR Pass Interference (#3 D.Bobby) 11 yard from BAYLOR13 to BAYL…
Q4 12:19BAY +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Dodds rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UH00 TOUCHDOWN #13 S.Robertson rush attempt Successful
Q3 13:54HOU +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman sacked for loss of 1 yard to the UH37 (#11 K.Thomas)

FAQ

What was the final score of Houston vs. Baylor?

Houston 31, Baylor 24.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked BAY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

HOU

BAY

51%

Success rate

54%

0.36

EPA / pass

-0.03

0.04

EPA / rush

0.15

52%

Early-down success

60%

61%

Pass success

46%

44%

Rush success

69%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

10%

15%

Stuffed rush rate

19%

40%

Pass rate

65%

6.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.6

HOU

6.7 yards to go on 3rd down

77 scrimmage snaps

BAY

7.6 yards to go on 3rd down

74 scrimmage snaps

HOU		BAY
417	Total yards	421
201	Passing yards	309
216	Rushing yards	112
29	First downs	25
5-14	3rd down	3-11
4-5	4th down	1-3
21/31	Comp/Att	23/46
6.5	Yards per pass	6.7
4.5	Yards per rush	4.3
1	Turnovers	2
2-24	Penalties	8-90
36:26	Possession	23:34

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

BAY 1526

HOU 1479

Projected spread

BAY -4.3

incl. home edge

Model pick

BAY

62% to win

Market spread

BAY -2.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

Agrees

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

62%

BAY · market 56%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1526, HOU Elo 1479 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY -4.3 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2025

nationally ranked

HOU2025 season · national rank shownBAY

395.062nd

Total yards / game

451.218th

5.677th

Yards / play

5.947th

216.483rd

Passing yards / game

309.64th

178.640th

Rushing yards / game

141.683rd

40.8%57th

3rd down %

37.8%89th

347.847th

Yards allowed / game

391.887th

35.9%41st

3rd down % allowed

40.9%91st

+443rd

Turnover margin

-13133rd

4.619th

Penalties / game

6.066th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

The series31 meetings since 1950

The series is level at 15–15–1 · 32% have been one-possession games

Opponent-adjusted profile2025

HOU		BAY
-0.9 (#65)	CORE overall	+5.3 (#54)
-1 / +0	offense / defense	+6 / +0
2.41	points / drive	2.31
2.08	allowed / drive	2.85
22%	three-and-outs	16%
-5	pass over expected	+8

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Game Info

Kickoff: Sat, Nov 29, 12:00 PM EST
Venue: McLane Stadium
Setting: Conference game
Model line: BAY -4.3

The Model's Pick

Baylor

to win · 62%

✗ Miss

Projected spreadBAY -4.3

Market56%

Game Leaders

Houston

Pass Conner Weigman21/31, 201 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rush Conner Weigman22 car, 121 yds, 2 TD
Rec Amare Thomas9 rec, 97 yds, 1 TD

Baylor

Pass Sawyer Robertson23/46, 309 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rush Joseph Dodds12 car, 61 yds, 1 TD
Rec Kobe Prentice4 rec, 96 yds

Biggest Plays

Baylor+5.1 EPA
(08:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete deep right to #34 J.Cameron caught at UH04, for 31 yards to the UH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:53, 1ST DOWN #96 C.Hawkins kick attempt good (H: #94 P.Williams, LS: #93 D.Schaub)
Houston+-4.8 EPA
(04:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass intercepted by #22 M.Stampley II at UH00 broken up by #25 C.Glass, Touchback
Baylor+-4.0 EPA
(12:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass intercepted by #11 K.Thomas at BAYLOR23 #11 K.Thomas return 14 yards to the BAYLOR37 (#44 D.Connors)

HOUTeam statsBAY

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Houston vs. Baylor?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2025

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Houston vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap

HOUTeam statsBAY

How the model called it

What was the final score of Houston vs. Baylor?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups