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Houston vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 29, 5:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| BAY | 0 | 9 | 0 | 15 | 24 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BAY 1526
HOU 1479
Projected spread
BAY -4.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
BAY
62% to win
Market spread
BAY -2.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
62%
BAY · market 56%
Our model blends Elo ratings (BAY Elo 1526, HOU Elo 1479) plus home-field advantage. That projects BAY -4.3 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
BAY (top)HOU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BAY 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
HOU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedBAY
Offense
0.12
PPA / play
0.2042%
Success rate
45%1.23
Explosiveness
1.273.55
Pts / opportunity
3.6973%
Power success
77%Defense
0.11
PPA allowed / play
0.1842%
Success rate allowed
44%1.13
Explosiveness allowed
1.1616%
Havoc rate
12%20%
Stuff rate
15%Key matchups · Pro
- HOU rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. BAY rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge BAY.
- BAY rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. HOU rush defense (0.05 allowed) — edge BAY.
- HOU pass offense (0.35 PPA) vs. BAY pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge HOU.
Drive-by-drive
HOU 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →BAY 5/11 scoring drives
BAYPUNT4 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q1
HOUTD12 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q1
BAYINT8 pl, 68 yds· own 25Q1
HOUPUNT4 pl, 6 yds· own 20Q1
BAYFUM2 pl, 22 yds· own 47Q1
BAYFG4 pl, 0 yds· opp 37Q2
HOUINT4 pl, 40 yds· own 25Q2
BAYFG12 pl, 46 yds· own 37Q2
HOUFG12 pl, 64 yds· own 25Q2
BAYFG12 pl, 62 yds· own 25Q2
HOUEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
HOUPUNT10 pl, 40 yds· own 25Q3
BAYPUNT6 pl, 6 yds· own 10Q3
HOUTD5 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3
BAYDOWNS8 pl, 52 yds· own 36Q3
HOUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 12Q3
BAYTD7 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ3
HOUDOWNS5 pl, 21 yds· own 23Q4
BAYTD5 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q4
HOUTD15 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q4
BAYDOWNS7 pl, 62 yds· own 25Q4
HOUUncateg3 pl, 17 yds· own 13Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
HOU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
95%
HOU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston vs. Baylor?
Houston 31, Baylor 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BAY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had BAY pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.