Houston Christian vs. Nebraska: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Houston Christian

07

Nebraska2-0

▸0059

Final

Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)

	1	2	3	4	T
HOUS	0	0	7	0	7
NEB	17	21	14	7	59

HOUSTeam statsNEB

160Total yards554

67Pass362

93Rush192

11First downs30

4-143rd down5-9

2Turnovers0

29:43Possession30:17

Scoring plays

• Q4 8:14NEBCortez Mills Jr. 62 Yd pass from TJ Lateef (Kyle Cunanan Kick)7–59
• Q3 4:01NEBKwinten Ives 4 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)7–52
• Q3 7:34HOUSXai'Shaun Edwards 45 Yd Run (Charlie Weinrich Kick)7–45
• Q3 9:19NEBTJ Lateef 6 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–45
• Q2 2:52NEBEmmett Johnson 4 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–38
• Q2 9:38NEBWilliams Nwaneri 0 Yd Fumble Return (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–31
• Q2 11:34NEBEmmett Johnson 2 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–24
• Q1 3:14NEBDane Key 39 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–17
• Q1 6:14NEBJacory Barney Jr. 9 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–10
• Q1 11:12NEBKyle Cunanan 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

NEB −48

Against the number

NEB covered

line NEB −48

What the numbers say

• HOUS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NEB did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.2 vs 3rd & 4.3

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

NEB 100%50%HOUS 100%

Kickoff146 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

NEB (top)HOUS (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NEB 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

NEB −48

Closing total

58.5

Model line

—

Actual result

HOUS 7 – 59 NEB

Leaders

Houston Christian

• PassJake Weir 11/18, 67 YDS
• RushXai'Shaun Edwards 13 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJa'Ryan Wallace 5 REC, 31 YDS

Nebraska

• PassDylan Raiola 15/21, 222 YDS, 2 TD
• RushKwinten Ives 12 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
• RecDane Key 4 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

27.9sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

129

Points / snap

0.51

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NEB up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 103 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

NEB went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUSC vs Stanford56-10WRice vs Texas Southern59-7WOregon vs Hawai'i55-10WDelaware vs Towson51-13WMissouri vs Murray State51-0

Fourth downs

13 calls

Neither coaching staff gave up anything measurable.HOUS 9/9 · NEB 2/2 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Houston Christian vs. Nebraska?

Houston Christian 7, Nebraska 59.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (NEB) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

HOUS

NEB

34%

Success rate

62%

-0.08

EPA / pass

0.68

0.17

EPA / rush

0.32

31%

Early-down success

64%

29%

Pass success

65%

38%

Rush success

60%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

21%

22%

Stuffed rush rate

14%

40%

Pass rate

45%

7.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.3

HOUS

7.2 yards to go on 3rd down

53 scrimmage snaps

NEB

4.3 yards to go on 3rd down

76 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

HOUS		NEB
160	Total yards	554
67	Passing yards	362
93	Rushing yards	192
11	First downs	30
4-14	3rd down	5-9
2-2	4th down	1-2
11/18	Comp/Att	23/29
3.7	Yards per pass	12.5
2.7	Yards per rush	5.1
2	Turnovers	0
9-70	Penalties	4-45
29:43	Possession	30:17

Fourth downs

13 calls

HOUS

9/9 with the model

nothing given up

NEB

2/2 with the model

nothing given up

No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

HOUS 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →NEB 7/11 scoring drives

NEBFG9 pl, 66 yds· own 28Q1

HOUSPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 9Q1

NEBTD6 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q1

HOUSPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 35Q1

NEBTD3 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q1

HOUSPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 32Q1

NEBTD9 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

HOUSTD4 pl, 16 yds· own 13Q2

HOUSPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q2

NEBTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

HOUSPUNT9 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q2

NEBEND2 pl, -10 yds· own 27Q2

HOUSPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3

NEBTD8 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q3

HOUSTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

NEBTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

HOUSPUNT14 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q3

NEBTD3 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4

HOUSFUM1 pl, 1 yds· own 7Q4

NEBDOWNS4 pl, 7 yds· opp 8Q4

HOUSPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 1Q4

NEBEND7 pl, 9 yds· opp 30Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 8:14NEBCortez Mills Jr. 62 Yd pass from TJ Lateef (Kyle Cunanan Kick)7–59
• Q3 4:01NEBKwinten Ives 4 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)7–52
• Q3 7:34HOUSXai'Shaun Edwards 45 Yd Run (Charlie Weinrich Kick)7–45
• Q3 9:19NEBTJ Lateef 6 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–45
• Q2 2:52NEBEmmett Johnson 4 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–38
• Q2 9:38NEBWilliams Nwaneri 0 Yd Fumble Return (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–31
• Q2 11:34NEBEmmett Johnson 2 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–24
• Q1 3:14NEBDane Key 39 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–17
• Q1 6:14NEBJacory Barney Jr. 9 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–10
• Q1 11:12NEBKyle Cunanan 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →