Holy Cross vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Holy Cross

0017

Northern Illinois

▸0019

Final

Huskie Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
HOLY	0	3	0	14	17
NIU	3	3	0	13	19

HOLYTeam statsNIU

217Total yards287

155Pass109

62Rush178

11First downs17

3-123rd down5-17

1Turnovers1

26:34Possession33:25

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:03HOLYAlijah Cason 97 Yd Kickoff Return (Luis Palenzuela Kick)17–19
• Q4 4:15NIUChavon Wright 2 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)10–19
• Q4 10:21NIUDev'ion Reynolds 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Andrew Glass PAT failed)10–12
• Q4 10:34HOLYBlake Youngblood 16 Yd pass from Cal Swanson (Luis Palenzuela Kick)10–6
• Q2 0:10NIUAndrew Glass 39 Yd Field Goal 3–6
• Q2 3:22HOLYLuis Palenzuela 33 Yd Field Goal 3–3
• Q1 4:00NIUAndrew Glass 20 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

NIU −13.5

Against the number

HOLY covered

line NIU −13.5

What the numbers say

• NIU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and HOLY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 5.8

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

HOLY aheadNIU ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = HOLY ahead, below = NIU ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

NIU −13.5

Closing total

48.5

Model line

—

Actual result

HOLY 17 – 19 NIU

Leaders

Holy Cross

• PassCal Swanson 17/29, 155 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushCal Swanson 12 CAR, 51 YDS
• RecMax Mosey 6 REC, 71 YDS

Northern Illinois

• PassJosh Holst 12/18, 101 YDS, 1 INT
• RushChavon Wright 11 CAR, 77 YDS, 1 TD
• RecDeAree Rogers 7 REC, 73 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

27.8sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

128

Points / snap

0.28

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NIU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

61%

NIU went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

LMerrimack vs Holy Cross24-49LPurdue vs Fresno State35-39LRichmond vs Morgan State10-17WBoston College vs Holy Cross31-28LNorth Texas vs Florida International39-48

Fourth downs

20 calls

NIU gave up 1.7 points to the model on fourth down.HOLY 6/8 · NIU 6/10 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Holy Cross vs. Northern Illinois?

Holy Cross 17, Northern Illinois 19.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (NIU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

HOLY

NIU

31%

Success rate

36%

-0.14

EPA / pass

0.03

-0.21

EPA / rush

0.05

32%

Early-down success

34%

31%

Pass success

36%

30%

Rush success

35%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

7%

30%

Stuffed rush rate

27%

58%

Pass rate

34%

5.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.2

HOLY

5.8 yards to go on 3rd down

55 scrimmage snaps

NIU

8.2 yards to go on 3rd down

73 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

HOLY		NIU
217	Total yards	287
155	Passing yards	109
62	Rushing yards	178
11	First downs	17
3-12	3rd down	5-17
0-2	4th down	2-3
17/29	Comp/Att	14/24
5.3	Yards per pass	4.5
2.4	Yards per rush	3.7
1	Turnovers	1
1-5	Penalties	7-48
26:34	Possession	33:25

Fourth downs

20 calls

HOLY

6/8 with the model

−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

NIU

6/10 with the model

−1.7 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 8:50 HOLY punt on 4th & 1 at HOLY 26. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.

Every call, priced (20)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

HOLY 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →NIU 3/12 scoring drives

NIUPUNT6 pl, 10 yds· own 27Q1

HOLYPUNT8 pl, 26 yds· own 9Q1

NIUFG8 pl, 63 yds· own 34Q1

HOLYINT4 pl, 18 yds· own 30Q1

NIUPUNT9 pl, 26 yds· own 32Q1

HOLYDOWNS10 pl, 66 yds· own 2Q2

NIUDOWNS5 pl, -19 yds· own 32Q2

HOLYFG4 pl, -2 yds· opp 13Q2

NIUFG12 pl, 71 yds· own 8Q2

HOLYEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 41Q2

HOLYMISS4 pl, 6 yds· opp 29Q3

NIUINT5 pl, 28 yds· own 23Q3

HOLYPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 17Q3

NIUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 43Q3

HOLYPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 30Q3

NIUPUNT7 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q3

HOLYMISS7 pl, 10 yds· opp 37Q3

NIUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 27Q4

HOLYTD4 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q4

HOLYPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 20Q4

NIUTD8 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q4

NIUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 23Q4

HOLYDOWNS4 pl, 6 yds· own 39Q4

NIUUncateg5 pl, 7 yds· opp 45Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:03HOLYAlijah Cason 97 Yd Kickoff Return (Luis Palenzuela Kick)17–19
• Q4 4:15NIUChavon Wright 2 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)10–19
• Q4 10:21NIUDev'ion Reynolds 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Andrew Glass PAT failed)10–12
• Q4 10:34HOLYBlake Youngblood 16 Yd pass from Cal Swanson (Luis Palenzuela Kick)10–6
• Q2 0:10NIUAndrew Glass 39 Yd Field Goal 3–6
• Q2 3:22HOLYLuis Palenzuela 33 Yd Field Goal 3–3
• Q1 4:00NIUAndrew Glass 20 Yd Field Goal 0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →