CEFCU StadiumConference gameClosing line: SJSU -2.5 · SJSU covered
Sun, Nov 2, 2:30 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAW | 7 | 7 | 14 | 10 | 38 |
| SJSU | 7 | 24 | 7 | 7 | 45 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SJSU Elo 1410, HAW Elo 1366) plus home-field advantage. That projects SJSU -4.2 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
SJSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Hawai'i 38, San José State 45.
Yes — the model's pick (SJSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had SJSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(04:16) Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass complete deep left to #9 J.Harris caught at SJSU26, for 68 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:07, 1ST DOWN #17 K.Matsuzawa kick attempt good (H: #18 C.Freeman, LS: #33 J.Mowrey)
(09:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete deep right to #10 D.Scudero caught at UHM24, for 62 yards to the UHM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:02, 1ST DOWN #48 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #44 A.Campos)
(06:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete deep right to #4 K.Shoels caught at UHM05, for 43 yards to the UHM02 (#14 J.Wilson-Jones), 1ST DOWN
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