| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGA | 7 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 44 |
| TENN | 21 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TENN Elo 1799, UGA Elo 2053) plus home-field advantage. That projects TENN +7.8 (28% to win) — 4.3 points of value on UGA versus the market line of +3.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = UGA ahead, below = TENN ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
TENN up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Georgia 44, Tennessee 41.
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UGA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 72 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 56 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
Gunner Stockton pass complete to London Humphreys for 28 yds for a TD (Gunner Stockton pass to Zachariah Branch for Two-Point Conversion)
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