Georgia vs. Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UGATeam statsTENN
- OT 0:00UGAJosh McCray 1 Yd Run 44–41
- OT 0:00TENNMax Gilbert 42 Yd Field Goal 38–41
- Q4 2:32UGALondon Humphreys 28 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Gunner Stockton Pass to Zachariah Branch for Two-Point Conversion)38–38
- Q4 6:40TENNMax Gilbert 48 Yd Field Goal 30–38
- Q4 11:01TENNBraylon Staley 32 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)30–35
- Q4 12:17UGAPeyton Woodring 24 Yd Field Goal 30–28
- Q3 0:07TENNChris Brazzell II 56 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)27–28
- Q3 1:45UGAPeyton Woodring 48 Yd Field Goal 27–21
- Q3 7:19UGAJosh McCray 1 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)24–21
- Q2 1:42UGAPeyton Woodring 20 Yd Field Goal 17–21
- Q2 14:52UGAZachariah Branch 36 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)14–21
- Q1 3:37TENNChris Brazzell II 14 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)7–21
- Q1 9:29TENNChris Brazzell II 72 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:58UGAGunner Stockton 6 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:30TENNJoey Aguilar 4 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassGunner Stockton 23/31, 304 YDS, 2 TD
- RushNate Frazier 14 CAR, 73 YDS
- RecColbie Young 4 REC, 73 YDS
- PassJoey Aguilar 24/36, 371 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushStar Thomas 9 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecChris Brazzell II 6 REC, 177 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTENN up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- OT 0:00TENN +90%
Max Gilbert 42 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 0:00UGA +87%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 24
- OT 0:00UGA +80%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd for a TD
- Q4 2:32UGA +64%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to London Humphreys for 28 yds for a TD (Gunner Stockton pass to Zachariah Branch for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 0:37TENN +48%
DeSean Bishop run for 3 yds to the UGA 32
- Q4 11:01TENN +38%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 32 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia vs. Tennessee?
Georgia 44, Tennessee 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
| UGA | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 502 | Total yards | 496 |
| 304 | Passing yards | 371 |
| 198 | Rushing yards | 125 |
| 28 | First downs | 23 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 23/32 | Comp/Att | 24/36 |
| 9.5 | Yards per pass | 10.3 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-39 | Penalties | 10-82 |
| 38:28 | Possession | 21:32 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:42 UGA field goal on 4th & 2 at TENN 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00UGAJosh McCray 1 Yd Run 44–41
- OT 0:00TENNMax Gilbert 42 Yd Field Goal 38–41
- Q4 2:32UGALondon Humphreys 28 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Gunner Stockton Pass to Zachariah Branch for Two-Point Conversion)38–38
- Q4 6:40TENNMax Gilbert 48 Yd Field Goal 30–38
- Q4 11:01TENNBraylon Staley 32 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)30–35
- Q4 12:17UGAPeyton Woodring 24 Yd Field Goal 30–28
- Q3 0:07TENNChris Brazzell II 56 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)27–28
- Q3 1:45UGAPeyton Woodring 48 Yd Field Goal 27–21
- Q3 7:19UGAJosh McCray 1 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)24–21
- Q2 1:42UGAPeyton Woodring 20 Yd Field Goal 17–21
- Q2 14:52UGAZachariah Branch 36 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)14–21
- Q1 3:37TENNChris Brazzell II 14 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)7–21
- Q1 9:29TENNChris Brazzell II 72 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:58UGAGunner Stockton 6 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:30TENNJoey Aguilar 4 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TENN Elo 1799, UGA Elo 2053 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TENN +7.8 (31% to win) — 4.3 points clear of UGA's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesGeorgia leads 30–22–2 · Georgia has won 9 straight · 39% have been one-possession games
| UGA | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.0 (#15) | CORE overall | +15.0 (#26) |
| +9 / -11 | offense / defense | +16 / +1 |
| 3.08 | points / drive | 3.27 |
| 1.83 | allowed / drive | 2.38 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →