Georgia vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UGATeam statsFLA
- Q4 4:36UGAChauncey Bowens 36 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)24–20
- Q4 14:52FLATrey Smack 54 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q3 3:37FLAJadan Baugh 2 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)17–17
- Q3 10:46UGANoah Thomas 22 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)17–10
- Q2 0:12UGAPeyton Woodring 39 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 3:02FLATrey Smack 22 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 6:32FLAEugene Wilson III 40 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:53UGADillon Bell 8 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UGA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and FLA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 5.2
- PassGunner Stockton 20/29, 223 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushChauncey Bowens 9 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- RecZachariah Branch 10 REC, 112 YDS
- PassDJ Lagway 15/24, 166 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJadan Baugh 15 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEugene Wilson III 9 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 4:36UGA +45%
No Huddle-Shotgun #33 C.Bowens rush middle for 36 yards gain to the FLA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 14:52FLA +26%
#29 T.Smack field goal attempt from 54 yards GOOD
- Q3 3:37FLA +22%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UGA00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 1:54UGA +17%
PENALTY FLA Offside (#33 B.Taylor Jr.) 5 yards from FLA10 to FLA05. NO PLAY
- Q4 6:37UGA +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short left to #1 Z.Branch caught at UGA31, for 18 yards to the UGA38 (#5 M.Graham), 1ST DOWN
- Q3 10:46UGA +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete deep left to #5 N.Thomas caught at FLA00, for 22 yards to the FLA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia vs. Florida?
Georgia 24, Florida 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
| UGA | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 361 | Total yards | 281 |
| 223 | Passing yards | 166 |
| 138 | Rushing yards | 115 |
| 20 | First downs | 16 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 2-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 20/29 | Comp/Att | 15/24 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-65 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 32:25 | Possession | 27:35 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:51 FLA punt on 4th & 1 at FLA 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:36UGAChauncey Bowens 36 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)24–20
- Q4 14:52FLATrey Smack 54 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q3 3:37FLAJadan Baugh 2 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)17–17
- Q3 10:46UGANoah Thomas 22 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)17–10
- Q2 0:12UGAPeyton Woodring 39 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 3:02FLATrey Smack 22 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 6:32FLAEugene Wilson III 40 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:53UGADillon Bell 8 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1638, UGA Elo 2034 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects FLA +15.8 (16% to win) — 8.8 points clear of UGA's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesGeorgia leads 58–44–2 · Georgia has won 5 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| UGA | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.0 (#15) | CORE overall | +3.5 (#59) |
| +9 / -11 | offense / defense | +0 / -3 |
| 3.08 | points / drive | 1.68 |
| 1.83 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →