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Georgia vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 1, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGA | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
| FLA | 10 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 20 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FLA 1638
UGA 2034
Projected spread
FLA +15.8
neutral site
Model pick
UGA
88% to win
Market spread
FLA +7
sportsbook line
Model edge
UGA
8.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
12%
FLA · market 29%
Our model blends Elo ratings (FLA Elo 1638, UGA Elo 2034) on a neutral field. That projects FLA +15.8 (12% to win) — 8.8 points of value on UGA versus the market line of +7.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
FLA (top)UGA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FLA 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UGA2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedFLA
Offense
0.26
PPA / play
0.1448%
Success rate
42%1.15
Explosiveness
1.144.79
Pts / opportunity
4.0075%
Power success
76%Defense
0.10
PPA allowed / play
0.1839%
Success rate allowed
43%1.13
Explosiveness allowed
1.2615%
Havoc rate
14%20%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- FLA rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. UGA rush defense (-0.01 allowed) — edge FLA.
- UGA rush offense (0.16 PPA) vs. FLA rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge UGA.
- UGA pass offense (0.36 PPA) vs. FLA pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge UGA.
Drive-by-drive
UGA 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →FLA 4/12 scoring drives
UGATD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
UGAPUNT10 pl, 36 yds· own 20Q1
FLAPUNT4 pl, 22 yds· own 20Q1
UGAPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 15Q1
FLATD1 pl, 40 yds· opp 10Q1
UGAINT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1
FLAFG5 pl, 34 yds· opp 38Q1
FLAPUNT5 pl, 13 yds· own 9Q2
FLAPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 11Q2
UGAPUNT8 pl, 19 yds· own 40Q2
FLAPUNT4 pl, 24 yds· own 11Q2
UGAPUNT4 pl, 5 yds· own 20Q2
UGAFG7 pl, 42 yds· own 37Q2
FLAEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 22Q2
FLAPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 38Q3
UGATD5 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q3
FLATD12 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q3
UGAPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 25Q3
FLAFG5 pl, 26 yds· own 38Q3
UGAPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 19Q4
FLADOWNS11 pl, 48 yds· own 34Q4
UGATD7 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q4
FLADOWNS4 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q4
UGAEND8 pl, 28 yds· opp 31Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
FLA win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia vs. Florida?
Georgia 24, Florida 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had UGA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.