| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GT | 7 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| BYU | 7 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 25 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BYU Elo 1750, GT Elo 1595) on a neutral field. That projects BYU -6.2 (68% to win) — 2.7 points of value on BYU versus the market line of -3.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = GT ahead, below = BYU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
GT up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Georgia Tech 21, BYU 25.
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BYU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(01:01) Shotgun #10 H.King pass complete deep right to #3 E.Rivers caught at BYU45, for 66 yards to the BYU18 (#0 E.Johnson), 1ST DOWN
(07:03) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass intercepted by #6 R.Shelley at GT00 #6 R.Shelley return 2 yards to the GT02 (#11 P.Kingston)
(08:44) Shotgun #21 E.Nawahine rush middle for 0 yards to the GT01 (#44 K.Efford), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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