Centennial Bank StadiumConference gameClosing line: GASO +-0.5 · ARST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GASO | 14 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 24 |
| ARST | 7 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 34 |
Team stats
GASOthis game · better side highlightedARST
336
Total yards
482208
Passing yards
216128
Rushing yards
26622
First downs
295-14 · 36%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ARST 1235
GASO 1335
Projected spread
ARST +1.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
GASO
55% to win
Market spread
ARST +0.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
45%
ARST · market 67%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARST Elo 1235, GASO Elo 1335) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARST +1.6 (45% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ARST (top)GASO (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARST 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- ARST rush offense (-0.01 PPA) vs. GASO rush defense (0.27 allowed) — edge GASO.
- ARST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. GASO pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge GASO.
- GASO rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. ARST rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge GASO.
Drive-by-drive
GASO 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ARST 6/11 scoring drives
GASOTD7 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
ARSTINT12 pl, 69 yds· own 25Q1
GASOTD10 pl, 98 yds· own 2Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ARST up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
ARST went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State?
Georgia Southern 24, Arkansas State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked GASO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had GASO pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.