Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASOTeam statsARST
- Q4 0:41ARSTClune Van Andel 27 Yd Field Goal 24–34
- Q4 1:56GASOTripp Bryant 21 Yd Field Goal 24–31
- Q4 9:47ARSTJaylen Raynor 2 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)21–31
- Q3 9:38ARSTJaylen Raynor 8 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)21–24
- Q2 0:09ARSTJaylen Raynor 2 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)21–17
- Q2 6:59GASOJC French IV 5 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)21–10
- Q2 13:24ARSTClune Van Andel 24 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q1 2:29ARSTKenyon Clay 1 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:10GASOMarcus Sanders Jr. 18 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:08GASOCamden Brown 24 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJC French IV 18/24, 208 YDS, 2 TD
- RushOJ Arnold 14 CAR, 73 YDS
- RecCamden Brown 5 REC, 44 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJaylen Raynor 24/37, 216 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKenyon Clay 17 CAR, 124 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChauncy Cobb 12 REC, 81 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARST up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 9:38ARST +31%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Raynor rush middle for 8 yards gain to the GS00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 9:47ARST +23%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Raynor rush left for 2 yards gain to the GS00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:09ARST +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Raynor rush middle for 2 yards gain to the GS00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 6:59GASO +21%
Shotgun #12 J.French IV rush left for 5 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 9:56ARST +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short right to #3 H.Summers thrown to GS00 PENALTY GS Pass Interference (#19 A.Chaney) 3 yards from GS05 to GS02, 1ST DOW…
- Q4 9:08GASO +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.French IV pass complete short left to #20 T.Gibbs caught at GS15, for 17 yards to the GS37 (#25 A.Alexander), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State?
Georgia Southern 24, Arkansas State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked GASO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GASO | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 336 | Total yards | 482 |
| 208 | Passing yards | 216 |
| 128 | Rushing yards | 266 |
| 22 | First downs | 29 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 11-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 18/25 | Comp/Att | 24/37 |
| 8.3 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-103 | Penalties | 9-82 |
| 31:43 | Possession | 28:17 |
Costliest call
Q4 13:05 GASO punt on 4th & 2 at GASO 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:41ARSTClune Van Andel 27 Yd Field Goal 24–34
- Q4 1:56GASOTripp Bryant 21 Yd Field Goal 24–31
- Q4 9:47ARSTJaylen Raynor 2 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)21–31
- Q3 9:38ARSTJaylen Raynor 8 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)21–24
- Q2 0:09ARSTJaylen Raynor 2 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)21–17
- Q2 6:59GASOJC French IV 5 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)21–10
- Q2 13:24ARSTClune Van Andel 24 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q1 2:29ARSTKenyon Clay 1 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:10GASOMarcus Sanders Jr. 18 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:08GASOCamden Brown 24 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARST Elo 1235, GASO Elo 1335 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARST +1.6 (47% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| GASO | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.7 (#105) | CORE overall | -16.8 (#118) |
| +2 / +17 | offense / defense | -11 / +6 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 1.85 |
| 3.06 | allowed / drive | 2.35 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →