CEFCU StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRES | 3 | 18 | 3 | 17 | 41 |
| SJSU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SJSU 1185
FRES 1478
Projected spread
SJSU +9.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
FRES
76% to win
Market spread
SJSU +3.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
FRES
5.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
24%
SJSU · market 40%
Our model blends Elo ratings (SJSU Elo 1185, FRES Elo 1478) plus home-field advantage. That projects SJSU +9.3 (24% to win) — 5.8 points of value on FRES versus the market line of +3.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
SJSU (top)FRES (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SJSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- FRES pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. SJSU pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge SJSU.
- FRES rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. SJSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge SJSU.
- SJSU pass offense (0.22 PPA) vs. FRES pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge SJSU.
Drive-by-drive
FRES 9/15 scoring drives← own end zone →SJSU 1/14 scoring drives
SJSUPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q1
FRESPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 46Q1
SJSUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 14Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
FRES up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
FRES went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. San José State?
Fresno State 41, San José State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had FRES pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.