| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| MISS | 10 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MISS Elo 1969, FLA Elo 1555) plus home-field advantage. That projects MISS -19 (92% to win) — 8.0 points of value on MISS versus the market line of -11.
FLA up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Florida 24, Ole Miss 34.
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MISS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(09:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass complete short middle to #1 D.Stribling caught at UF30, for 43 yards to the UF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:39, 1ST DOWN #17 L.Carneiro kick attempt good (H: #33 O.Bird, LS: #93 C.Short)
(00:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 59 yards gain to the UF01 (#0 S.Denson), 1ST DOWN
End of 3rd quarter.
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