Florida vs. Ole Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FLATeam statsMISS
- Q4 1:43MISSKewan Lacy 4 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)24–34
- Q4 14:57MISSKewan Lacy 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)24–27
- Q2 0:03FLATrey Smack 38 Yd Field Goal 24–20
- Q2 1:52MISSLucas Carneiro 23 Yd Field Goal 21–20
- Q2 6:54FLAJ. Michael Sturdivant 57 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)21–17
- Q2 9:39MISSDe'Zhaun Stribling 43 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–17
- Q2 14:56FLAJadan Baugh 2 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)14–10
- Q1 1:13FLADJ Lagway 5 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)7–10
- Q1 3:58MISSLucas Carneiro 27 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 9:09MISSKewan Lacy 3 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDJ Lagway 16/31, 218 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJadan Baugh 15 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTJ Abrams 3 REC, 76 YDS
- PassTrinidad Chambliss 26/35, 301 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKewan Lacy 31 CAR, 224 YDS, 3 TD
- RecDe'Zhaun Stribling 4 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFLA up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 14:57MISS +27%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UF00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 1:43MISS +23%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UF00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 2:36FLA +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass incomplete short right to #13 J.Baugh thrown to UF10
- Q2 6:54FLA +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete deep left to #9 J.Sturdivant caught at OM18, for 57 yards to the OM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:03FLA +14%
#29 T.Smack field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD
- Q2 9:39MISS +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass complete short middle to #1 D.Stribling caught at UF30, for 43 yards to the UF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida vs. Ole Miss?
Florida 24, Ole Miss 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
| FLA | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 326 | Total yards | 538 |
| 218 | Passing yards | 301 |
| 108 | Rushing yards | 237 |
| 14 | First downs | 27 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 5-7 |
| 16/32 | Comp/Att | 26/35 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 4-32 |
| 22:03 | Possession | 37:57 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:15 FLA punt on 4th & 2 at FLA 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:43MISSKewan Lacy 4 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)24–34
- Q4 14:57MISSKewan Lacy 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)24–27
- Q2 0:03FLATrey Smack 38 Yd Field Goal 24–20
- Q2 1:52MISSLucas Carneiro 23 Yd Field Goal 21–20
- Q2 6:54FLAJ. Michael Sturdivant 57 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)21–17
- Q2 9:39MISSDe'Zhaun Stribling 43 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–17
- Q2 14:56FLAJadan Baugh 2 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)14–10
- Q1 1:13FLADJ Lagway 5 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)7–10
- Q1 3:58MISSLucas Carneiro 27 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 9:09MISSKewan Lacy 3 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MISS Elo 1969, FLA Elo 1555 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MISS -19 (89% to win) — 8.0 points clear of MISS's market line of -11. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 13–13–1 · 44% have been one-possession games
| FLA | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.5 (#59) | CORE overall | +19.4 (#16) |
| +0 / -3 | offense / defense | +16 / -4 |
| 1.68 | points / drive | 3.33 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 2.07 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →