Florida vs. LSU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FLATeam statsLSU
- Q3 8:08LSUDashawn Spears 58 Yd Interception Return (Damian Ramos Kick)10–20
- Q2 0:00LSUDamian Ramos 45 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 3:25FLAAidan Mizell 10 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)10–10
- Q2 7:33LSUZavion Thomas 23 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)3–10
- Q2 14:56LSUDamian Ramos 47 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 11:34FLATrey Smack 45 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassDJ Lagway 33/49, 287 YDS, 1 TD, 5 INT
- RushJadan Baugh 10 CAR, 46 YDS
- RecVernell Brown III 8 REC, 62 YDS
- PassGarrett Nussmeier 15/27, 220 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCaden Durham 15 CAR, 93 YDS
- RecAaron Anderson 4 REC, 75 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:08LSU +21%
DJ Lagway pass intercepted Dashawn Spears return for 58 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
- Q2 3:25FLA +21%
D. Lagway pass to A. Mizell for 10 yds for a TD (T. Smack KICK)
- Q2 7:33LSU +19%
G. Nussmeier pass to Z. Thomas for 23 yds for a TD (D. Ramos KICK)
- Q2 0:00LSU +10%
Damian Ramos 45 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 14:56LSU +8%
D. Ramos 47 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 11:34FLA +8%
T. Smack 45 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida vs. LSU?
Florida 10, LSU 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LSU) was correct.
| FLA | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 366 | Total yards | 316 |
| 287 | Passing yards | 220 |
| 79 | Rushing yards | 96 |
| 23 | First downs | 10 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 33/49 | Comp/Att | 15/27 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-57 | Penalties | 7-68 |
| 37:46 | Possession | 22:14 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:18 LSU punt on 4th & 1 at LSU 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.43 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 8:08LSUDashawn Spears 58 Yd Interception Return (Damian Ramos Kick)10–20
- Q2 0:00LSUDamian Ramos 45 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 3:25FLAAidan Mizell 10 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)10–10
- Q2 7:33LSUZavion Thomas 23 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)3–10
- Q2 14:56LSUDamian Ramos 47 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 11:34FLATrey Smack 45 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LSU Elo 1735, FLA Elo 1668 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LSU -5.1 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLSU leads 35–34–3 · 36% have been one-possession games
| FLA | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.5 (#59) | CORE overall | +8.1 (#45) |
| +0 / -3 | offense / defense | -3 / -11 |
| 1.68 | points / drive | 1.66 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →