| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| LSU | 0 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (LSU Elo 1735, FLA Elo 1668) plus home-field advantage. That projects LSU -5.1 (65% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = FLA ahead, below = LSU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
LSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Florida 10, LSU 20.
Yes — the model's pick (LSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had LSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
DJ Lagway pass intercepted Dashawn Spears return for 58 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 65 yds to the FLA 16 for a 1ST down
DJ Lagway pass intercepted DJ Pickett return for 2 yds to the LSU 37
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