FAU StadiumClosing line: FAU -21 · FAU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLOR | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| FAU | 22 | 17 | 0 | 17 | 56 |
Team stats
FLORthis game · better side highlightedFAU
297
Total yards
553227
Passing yards
36070
Rushing yards
19316
First downs
345-16 · 31%
Third down
5-13 · 38%Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
FAU (top)FLOR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FAU 100%
Drive-by-drive
FLOR 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →FAU 8/12 scoring drives
FLORPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q1
FAUTD7 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q1
FLORTD5 pl, 14 yds· own 10Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
FAU up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
FAU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida A&M vs. Florida Atlantic?
Florida A&M 14, Florida Atlantic 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FLOR, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had FLOR pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.