Elon vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Elon

0017

Duke

▸0045

Final

Wallace Wade Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
ELON	0	10	0	7	17
DUKE	3	7	14	21	45

ELONTeam statsDUKE

275Total yards548

112Pass389

163Rush159

14First downs23

8-173rd down5-9

0Turnovers1

32:53Possession27:07

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:55DUKEPeyton Jones 5 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)17–45
• Q4 9:18DUKEQue'Sean Brown 78 Yd Punt Return (Todd Pelino Kick)17–38
• Q4 11:28DUKESahmir Hagans 6 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)17–31
• Q4 14:12ELONLandyn Backey 3 Yd Run (Luke Barnes Kick)17–24
• Q3 5:46DUKEAndrel Anthony 27 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)10–24
• Q3 10:59DUKESahmir Hagans 15 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)10–17
• Q2 3:43ELONLanden Clark 2 Yd Run (Luke Barnes Kick)10–10
• Q2 8:01DUKEJaquez Moore 32 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)3–10
• Q2 9:50ELONLuke Barnes 35 Yd Field Goal 3–3
• Q1 1:31DUKETodd Pelino 41 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

DUKE −36.5

Against the number

ELON covered

line DUKE −36.5

What the numbers say

• ELON played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and DUKE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 6.3

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ELON aheadDUKE ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ELON ahead, below = DUKE ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

DUKE −36.5

Closing total

51.0

Model line

—

Actual result

ELON 17 – 45 DUKE

Leaders

Elon

• PassLanden Clark 10/16, 101 YDS
• RushLanden Clark 18 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
• RecDylan Magazu 3 REC, 61 YDS

Duke

• PassDarian Mensah 27/34, 389 YDS, 3 TD
• RushAnderson Castle 3 CAR, 69 YDS
• RecCooper Barkate 5 REC, 117 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

27.2sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

125

Points / snap

0.50

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

DUKE up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

94%

DUKE went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WVanderbilt vs Hawai'i35-28WFurman vs Tennessee Tech45-10WTulane vs South Alabama37-17WWilliam & Mary vs Wofford23-6WOld Dominion vs Louisiana38-31

Fourth downs

12 calls

Neither coaching staff gave up anything measurable.ELON 9/9 · DUKE 3/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Elon vs. Duke?

Elon 17, Duke 45.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (DUKE) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

ELON

DUKE

33%

Success rate

53%

0.18

EPA / pass

0.63

0.21

EPA / rush

0.30

27%

Early-down success

51%

33%

Pass success

56%

33%

Rush success

48%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

23%

28%

Stuffed rush rate

16%

33%

Pass rate

59%

8.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.3

ELON

8.5 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

DUKE

6.3 yards to go on 3rd down

61 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

ELON		DUKE
275	Total yards	548
112	Passing yards	389
163	Rushing yards	159
14	First downs	23
8-17	3rd down	5-9
1-2	4th down	0-0
11/18	Comp/Att	27/34
6.2	Yards per pass	11.4
3.7	Yards per rush	6.4
0	Turnovers	1
7-47	Penalties	3-15
32:53	Possession	27:07

Fourth downs

12 calls

ELON

9/9 with the model

nothing given up

DUKE

3/3 with the model

nothing given up

No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

ELON 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →DUKE 6/10 scoring drives

ELONPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q1

DUKEMISS5 pl, 35 yds· own 38Q1

ELONPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 27Q1

DUKEPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 29Q1

ELONPUNT5 pl, 19 yds· own 19Q1

DUKEFG13 pl, 72 yds· own 5Q1

ELONFG13 pl, 58 yds· own 25Q1

DUKETD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

ELONTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

DUKEFUM5 pl, 56 yds· own 25Q2

ELONPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 19Q2

DUKEEND3 pl, 1 yds· opp 37Q2

DUKETD8 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q3

ELONPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 46Q3

DUKETD8 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q3

ELONTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

DUKETD5 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4

ELONTD3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q4

ELONDOWNS6 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q4

DUKETD7 pl, 47 yds· opp 47Q4

ELONEND3 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:55DUKEPeyton Jones 5 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)17–45
• Q4 9:18DUKEQue'Sean Brown 78 Yd Punt Return (Todd Pelino Kick)17–38
• Q4 11:28DUKESahmir Hagans 6 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)17–31
• Q4 14:12ELONLandyn Backey 3 Yd Run (Luke Barnes Kick)17–24
• Q3 5:46DUKEAndrel Anthony 27 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)10–24
• Q3 10:59DUKESahmir Hagans 15 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)10–17
• Q2 3:43ELONLanden Clark 2 Yd Run (Luke Barnes Kick)10–10
• Q2 8:01DUKEJaquez Moore 32 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)3–10
• Q2 9:50ELONLuke Barnes 35 Yd Field Goal 3–3
• Q1 1:31DUKETodd Pelino 41 Yd Field Goal 0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →