East Texas A&M vs. SMU: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

East Texas A&M

0013

SMU

▸0042

Final

Gerald J. Ford Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
EAST	0	3	0	10	13
SMU	14	7	7	14	42

EASTTeam statsSMU

351Total yards400

244Pass260

107Rush140

17First downs25

6-203rd down4-10

3Turnovers3

38:59Possession21:01

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:00EASTOzlo Rigby 32 Yd Field Goal 13–42
• Q4 2:55EASTEric Rodriguez 1 Yd Run (Ozlo Rigby Kick)10–42
• Q4 9:34SMUJalen Cooper 38 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Collin Rogers Kick)3–42
• Q4 14:12SMUKevin Jennings 7 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)3–35
• Q3 9:32SMUAhmaad Moses 95 Yd Interception Return (Collin Rogers Kick)3–28
• Q2 5:20EASTOzlo Rigby 29 Yd Field Goal 3–21
• Q2 13:01SMUB. Mahen punt for 52 yds,M. Barnes Jr. returns for 76 yds for a TD,SMU penalty, Offensive Holding (J. Davis-Robinson)0–27
• Q2 14:12SMUChris Johnson Jr. 22 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)0–21
• Q1 5:32SMUAlexander Kilgore 10 Yd Interception Return (Collin Rogers Kick)0–14
• Q1 14:07SMURomello Brinson 63 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Collin Rogers Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

SMU −50.5

Against the number

EAST covered

line SMU −50.5

What the numbers say

• EAST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 36% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

EAST aheadSMU ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = EAST ahead, below = SMU ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

SMU −50.5

Closing total

65.0

Model line

—

Actual result

EAST 13 – 42 SMU

Leaders

East Texas A&M

• PassEric Rodriguez 14/30, 191 YDS, 1 INT
• RushJaiSean McMillian 4 CAR, 31 YDS
• RecDevin Matthews 4 REC, 87 YDS

SMU

• PassKevin Jennings 22/30, 260 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushChris Johnson Jr. 6 CAR, 44 YDS, 1 TD
• RecRomello Brinson 7 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

SMU up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

SMU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUCF vs Kent State56-6WUAB vs North Carolina A&T35-6WFlorida A&M vs Jackson State28-10WOregon State vs San José State42-17WWest Virginia vs Duquesne56-17

Fourth downs

18 calls

EAST gave up 1.0 points to the model on fourth down.EAST 9/11 · SMU 5/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of East Texas A&M vs. SMU?

East Texas A&M 13, SMU 42.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (SMU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

EAST

SMU

36%

Success rate

47%

-0.35

EPA / pass

0.22

0.10

EPA / rush

0.20

35%

Early-down success

50%

33%

Pass success

40%

41%

Rush success

55%

14%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

7%

28%

Stuffed rush rate

27%

59%

Pass rate

52%

7.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.8

EAST

7.1 yards to go on 3rd down

78 scrimmage snaps

SMU

8.8 yards to go on 3rd down

68 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

EAST		SMU
351	Total yards	400
244	Passing yards	260
107	Rushing yards	140
17	First downs	25
6-20	3rd down	4-10
3-3	4th down	1-2
20/43	Comp/Att	22/30
5.7	Yards per pass	8.7
3.1	Yards per rush	4.2
3	Turnovers	3
11-80	Penalties	8-84
38:59	Possession	21:01

Fourth downs

18 calls

EAST

9/11 with the model

−1.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

SMU

5/5 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q1 9:07 EAST punt on 4th & 3 at SMU 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.92 points.

Every call, priced (18)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

EAST 6/14 scoring drives← own end zone →SMU 4/11 scoring drives

SMUTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

EASTPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 37Q1

SMUPUNT7 pl, 26 yds· own 9Q1

EASTTD3 pl, -3 yds· own 12Q1

EASTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 17Q1

SMUFUM3 pl, -6 yds· own 45Q1

EASTMISS5 pl, 34 yds· opp 39Q1

SMUTD6 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

EASTTD3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2

SMUINT11 pl, 58 yds· own 35Q2

EASTFG8 pl, 68 yds· own 20Q2

SMUPUNT3 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q2

EASTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 36Q2

SMUPUNT7 pl, 10 yds· own 21Q2

EASTEND2 pl, 4 yds· own 17Q2

EASTTD11 pl, 67 yds· own 25Q3

EASTPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 24Q3

SMUDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 35Q3

EASTFUM6 pl, 25 yds· opp 44Q3

SMUTD13 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q3

EASTPUNT7 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4

SMUTD3 pl, 47 yds· opp 47Q4

EASTTD13 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4

SMUFUM3 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q4

EASTFG8 pl, 31 yds· opp 46Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:00EASTOzlo Rigby 32 Yd Field Goal 13–42
• Q4 2:55EASTEric Rodriguez 1 Yd Run (Ozlo Rigby Kick)10–42
• Q4 9:34SMUJalen Cooper 38 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Collin Rogers Kick)3–42
• Q4 14:12SMUKevin Jennings 7 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)3–35
• Q3 9:32SMUAhmaad Moses 95 Yd Interception Return (Collin Rogers Kick)3–28
• Q2 5:20EASTOzlo Rigby 29 Yd Field Goal 3–21
• Q2 13:01SMUB. Mahen punt for 52 yds,M. Barnes Jr. returns for 76 yds for a TD,SMU penalty, Offensive Holding (J. Davis-Robinson)0–27
• Q2 14:12SMUChris Johnson Jr. 22 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)0–21
• Q1 5:32SMUAlexander Kilgore 10 Yd Interception Return (Collin Rogers Kick)0–14
• Q1 14:07SMURomello Brinson 63 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Collin Rogers Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →