Duquesne vs. Pittsburgh: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Duquesne

09

Pittsburgh

▸0061

Final

Acrisure Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
DUQU	0	6	0	3	9
PITT	14	20	14	13	61

DUQUTeam statsPITT

208Total yards460

171Pass302

37Rush158

8First downs21

2-153rd down5-14

0Turnovers1

35:23Possession24:37

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:12PITTBryce Yates 60 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Trey Butkowski Kick)9–61
• Q4 3:32PITTTrey Butkowski 27 Yd Field Goal 9–54
• Q4 8:03PITTTrey Butkowski 27 Yd Field Goal 9–51
• Q4 13:56DUQUMatt Marcinko 35 Yd Field Goal 9–48
• Q3 3:14PITTMalachi Thomas 34 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)6–48
• Q3 14:14PITTDesmond Reid 53 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)6–41
• Q2 0:48PITTCataurus Hicks 16 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)6–34
• Q2 4:01PITTKenny Johnson 20 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)6–27
• Q2 9:24PITTJuelz Goff 1 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski PAT blocked)6–20
• Q2 10:28DUQUB.J. Alexander 7 Yd pass from Tyler Riddell (Matt Marcinko PAT failed)6–14
• Q1 2:47PITTCataurus Hicks 4 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:14PITTDesmond Reid 88 Yd Punt Return (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

PITT −39

Against the number

PITT covered

line PITT −39

What the numbers say

• DUQU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and PITT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.2 vs 3rd & 6.2

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

PITT 100%50%DUQU 100%

Kickoff155 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

PITT (top)DUQU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: PITT 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

PITT −39

Closing total

58.5

Model line

—

Actual result

DUQU 9 – 61 PITT

Leaders

Duquesne

• PassTyler Riddell 14/23, 154 YDS, 1 TD
• RushTaj Butts 10 CAR, 38 YDS
• RecJoey Isabella 8 REC, 120 YDS

Pittsburgh

• PassEli Holstein 15/23, 215 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
• RushDesmond Reid 8 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
• RecBryce Yates 2 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

29sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

124

Points / snap

0.56

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

PITT up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

PITT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WCincinnati vs Eastern Kentucky66-13WMemphis vs Bethune-Cookman56-14WWestern Carolina vs Charleston Southern77-28WYale vs Morgan State45-3WMonmouth vs Lehigh49-7

Fourth downs

23 calls

Neither coaching staff gave up anything measurable.DUQU 11/12 · PITT 8/8 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Duquesne vs. Pittsburgh?

Duquesne 9, Pittsburgh 61.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (PITT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

DUQU

PITT

14%

Success rate

49%

0.13

EPA / pass

0.46

-0.24

EPA / rush

0.30

14%

Early-down success

49%

17%

Pass success

45%

10%

Rush success

54%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

17%

38%

Stuffed rush rate

15%

50%

Pass rate

61%

11.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.2

DUQU

11.2 yards to go on 3rd down

58 scrimmage snaps

PITT

6.2 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

DUQU		PITT
208	Total yards	460
171	Passing yards	302
37	Rushing yards	158
8	First downs	21
2-15	3rd down	5-14
0-0	4th down	2-3
17/27	Comp/Att	23/38
6.3	Yards per pass	7.9
1.2	Yards per rush	5.9
0	Turnovers	1
11-88	Penalties	3-35
35:23	Possession	24:37

Fourth downs

23 calls

DUQU

11/12 with the model

nothing given up

PITT

8/8 with the model

nothing given up

No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.

Every call, priced (23)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

DUQU 3/16 scoring drives← own end zone →PITT 9/14 scoring drives

DUQUTD4 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q1

DUQUPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q1

PITTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 34Q1

DUQUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 21Q1

PITTTD11 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q1

DUQUPUNT3 pl, -20 yds· own 25Q1

PITTINT4 pl, 7 yds· opp 26Q1

DUQUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 20Q2

PITTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 19Q2

DUQUTD2 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q2

PITTTD3 pl, 18 yds· opp 18Q2

DUQUPUNT6 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q2

PITTTD3 pl, 47 yds· opp 47Q2

DUQUPUNT5 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q2

PITTTD6 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

DUQUEND2 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2

PITTTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

DUQUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3

PITTPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 20Q3

DUQUPUNT6 pl, 21 yds· own 35Q3

PITTTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

DUQUFG8 pl, 33 yds· midfieldQ3

PITTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 29Q4

DUQUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q4

PITTFG9 pl, 31 yds· opp 40Q4

DUQUPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q4

PITTFG7 pl, 12 yds· opp 21Q4

DUQUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q4

PITTTD2 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q4

DUQUUncateg2 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:12PITTBryce Yates 60 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Trey Butkowski Kick)9–61
• Q4 3:32PITTTrey Butkowski 27 Yd Field Goal 9–54
• Q4 8:03PITTTrey Butkowski 27 Yd Field Goal 9–51
• Q4 13:56DUQUMatt Marcinko 35 Yd Field Goal 9–48
• Q3 3:14PITTMalachi Thomas 34 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)6–48
• Q3 14:14PITTDesmond Reid 53 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)6–41
• Q2 0:48PITTCataurus Hicks 16 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)6–34
• Q2 4:01PITTKenny Johnson 20 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)6–27
• Q2 9:24PITTJuelz Goff 1 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski PAT blocked)6–20
• Q2 10:28DUQUB.J. Alexander 7 Yd pass from Tyler Riddell (Matt Marcinko PAT failed)6–14
• Q1 2:47PITTCataurus Hicks 4 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:14PITTDesmond Reid 88 Yd Punt Return (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →