Duke
7-5·ACC· Elo 1607
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| UVA | 0 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UVA Elo 1631, DUKE Elo 1607) on a neutral field. That projects UVA -1 (53% to win) — 2.5 points of value on DUKE versus the market line of -3.5.
DUKE up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Duke 27, Virginia 20.
No — the model picked UVA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had UVA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete deep left to #2 S.Hagans caught at UVA 20, for 35 yards to the UVA 18, out of bounds at UVA 18, 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short middle to #85 J.Hasley caught at UVA 11, for 12 yards to the UVA 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:22, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Pelino kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #57 C.Cooper)
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short middle to #6 C.Ross caught at UVA 50, for 25 yards to the DUKE40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
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