Duke vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
DUKETeam statsUVA
- OT 0:00DUKEJeremiah Hasley 1 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)27–20
- Q4 0:22UVAEli Wood 18 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)20–20
- Q4 3:54UVAWill Bettridge 42 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q4 5:02DUKETodd Pelino 23 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q3 3:53DUKETodd Pelino 29 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q3 7:19UVAWill Bettridge 24 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 6:14DUKENate Sheppard 16 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)14–7
- Q2 14:16UVAJ'Mari Taylor 11 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:40DUKEJeremiah Hasley 12 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDarian Mensah 19/25, 196 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushNate Sheppard 21 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCooper Barkate 5 REC, 91 YDS
- PassChandler Morris 21/40, 216 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushHarrison Waylee 11 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecCameron Ross 5 REC, 59 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDUKE up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:22UVA +88%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #82 E.Wood caught at DUKE00, for 18 yards to the DUKE00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 0:18DUKE +73%
Kneel down by #10 D.Mensah at DUKE13 for loss of 1 yard
- OT 0:00UVA +34%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UVA 14 (#27 D.Neal), 1ST DOWN
- OT 0:00DUKE +32%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #85 J.Hasley caught at DUKE00, for 1 yard to the UVA 00 TOUCHDOWN PENALTY UVA Roughing The Passer (#1 J.Jackson), 1ST…
- Q2 6:14DUKE +22%
No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 16 yards gain to the UVA 00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 15:00UVA +20%
PENALTY DUKE Offside (#34 L.Mergott) 4 yards from DUKE15 to DUKE11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Duke vs. Virginia?
Duke 27, Virginia 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UVA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| DUKE | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 333 | Total yards | 344 |
| 196 | Passing yards | 216 |
| 137 | Rushing yards | 128 |
| 18 | First downs | 25 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 4-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 19/25 | Comp/Att | 21/40 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 5.4 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-72 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 34:24 | Possession | 25:36 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:19 DUKE punt on 4th & 1 at DUKE 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00DUKEJeremiah Hasley 1 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)27–20
- Q4 0:22UVAEli Wood 18 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)20–20
- Q4 3:54UVAWill Bettridge 42 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q4 5:02DUKETodd Pelino 23 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q3 3:53DUKETodd Pelino 29 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q3 7:19UVAWill Bettridge 24 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 6:14DUKENate Sheppard 16 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)14–7
- Q2 14:16UVAJ'Mari Taylor 11 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:40DUKEJeremiah Hasley 12 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UVA Elo 1631, DUKE Elo 1607 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects UVA -1 (54% to win) — 2.5 points clear of DUKE's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#99 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #88 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #23 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Virginia leads 40–34 · 27% have been one-possession games
| DUKE | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.4 (#60) | CORE overall | +10.3 (#39) |
| +9 / +7 | offense / defense | +1 / -9 |
| 3.04 | points / drive | 2.33 |
| 2.85 | allowed / drive | 1.65 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →