Duke
5-3·ACC· Elo 1627
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 7 | 7 | 14 | 6 | 34 |
| CONN | 10 | 10 | 3 | 14 | 37 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CONN Elo 1561, DUKE Elo 1627) plus home-field advantage. That projects CONN +0.2 (49% to win) — 7.3 points of value on CONN versus the market line of +7.5.
DUKE up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Duke 34, UConn 37.
No — the model picked DUKE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had DUKE pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
End of 1st quarter.
(13:43) #86 A.Honig rush left for 26 yards gain to the Duke40 (#0 C.Rivers), 1ST DOWN
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah sacked for loss of 19 yards to the Duke42 (#6 B.Parham), fumble by #10 D.Mensah recovered by UConn #89 T.Jones at Duke42, End Of Play
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