Duke vs. UConn: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
DUKETeam statsCONN
- Q4 1:58CONNSkyler Bell 19 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Joe Fagnano Run for Two-Point Conversion)34–37
- Q4 5:34DUKEJeremiah Hasley 10 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)34–29
- Q4 10:48CONNCam Edwards 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–29
- Q3 2:09DUKELanden King 1 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)28–23
- Q3 6:50CONNChris Freeman 20 Yd Field Goal 21–23
- Q3 10:13DUKENate Sheppard 3 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)21–20
- Q2 0:51CONNChris Freeman 45 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q2 5:59CONNSkyler Bell 4 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)14–17
- Q2 12:25DUKEAndrel Anthony 10 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)14–10
- Q1 6:12CONNChris Freeman 29 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 9:03CONNJuice Vereen 10 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:31DUKENate Sheppard 13 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDarian Mensah 22/31, 222 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushNate Sheppard 16 CAR, 100 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJeremiah Hasley 4 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJoe Fagnano 28/40, 316 YDS, 3 TD
- RushCam Edwards 15 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- RecReymello Murphy 5 REC, 110 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDUKE up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:58CONN +80%
Shotgun #2 J.Fagnano pass complete short left to #1 S.Bell caught at Duke00, for 19 yards to the Duke00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Duke Offside declined #2 J.Fagnano…
- Q1 13:36DUKE +43%
#17 C.Stutz punt 48 yards to the Duke30 #7 Q.Brown return 15 yards to the Duke45 (#18 K.Hicks; #28 J.Morris)
- Q4 5:34DUKE +37%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short middle to #85 J.Hasley caught at UConn00, for 10 yards to the UConn00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #10 D.Mensah pass attempt failed
- Q4 10:48CONN +34%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush right for 3 yards gain to the Duke00 TOUCHDOWN #3 N.Evers pass attempt failed #2 J.Fagnano pass attempt failed
- Q3 2:09DUKE +30%
#10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #0 L.King caught at UConn00, for 1 yard to the UConn00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 0:18CONN +28%
Kneel down by UConn at Duke43 for loss of 1 yard
FAQ
What was the final score of Duke vs. UConn?
Duke 34, UConn 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CONN) was correct.
| DUKE | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 390 | Total yards | 472 |
| 222 | Passing yards | 316 |
| 168 | Rushing yards | 156 |
| 26 | First downs | 25 |
| 3-8 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 22/31 | Comp/Att | 28/41 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 7.7 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-63 | Penalties | 5-60 |
| 26:47 | Possession | 33:13 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:50 CONN field goal on 4th & 2 at DUKE 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:58CONNSkyler Bell 19 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Joe Fagnano Run for Two-Point Conversion)34–37
- Q4 5:34DUKEJeremiah Hasley 10 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)34–29
- Q4 10:48CONNCam Edwards 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–29
- Q3 2:09DUKELanden King 1 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)28–23
- Q3 6:50CONNChris Freeman 20 Yd Field Goal 21–23
- Q3 10:13DUKENate Sheppard 3 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)21–20
- Q2 0:51CONNChris Freeman 45 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q2 5:59CONNSkyler Bell 4 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)14–17
- Q2 12:25DUKEAndrel Anthony 10 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)14–10
- Q1 6:12CONNChris Freeman 29 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 9:03CONNJuice Vereen 10 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:31DUKENate Sheppard 13 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CONN Elo 1561, DUKE Elo 1627 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CONN +0.2 (51% to win) — 7.3 points clear of CONN's market line of +7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| DUKE | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.4 (#60) | CORE overall | -7.6 (#89) |
| +9 / +7 | offense / defense | +5 / +13 |
| 3.04 | points / drive | 3.14 |
| 2.85 | allowed / drive | 2.55 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →