Duke
4-3·ACC· Elo 1622
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 21 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 46 |
| CLEM | 7 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 45 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CLEM Elo 1708, DUKE Elo 1622) plus home-field advantage. That projects CLEM -5.8 (67% to win), essentially in line with the market.
CLEM up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Duke 46, Clemson 45.
No — the model picked CLEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had CLEM pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Cooper Barkate 77 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)
T.J. Moore 75 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Nolan Hauser Kick)
End of 3rd quarter.
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