Duke vs. Clemson: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
DUKETeam statsCLEM
- Q4 0:40DUKENate Sheppard 3 Yd Run (Darian Mensah Pass to Sahmir Hagans for Two-Point Conversion)46–45
- Q4 10:28CLEMT.J. Moore 75 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Nolan Hauser Kick)38–45
- Q4 10:40DUKETodd Pelino 37 Yd Field Goal38–38
- Q3 0:14CLEMNolan Hauser 22 Yd Field Goal35–38
- Q3 8:13DUKESahmir Hagans 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Todd Pelino Kick)35–35
- Q3 8:25CLEMPeter Woods 1 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick)28–35
- Q2 0:11DUKEQue'Sean Brown 43 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)28–28
- Q2 1:01CLEMAdam Randall 2 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick)21–28
- Q2 5:49CLEMAdam Randall 2 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick)21–21
- Q2 10:26CLEMAntonio Williams 4 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Nolan Hauser Kick)21–14
- Q1 0:05DUKEAndrel Anthony 20 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)21–7
- Q1 5:33DUKECooper Barkate 77 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)14–7
- Q1 6:25CLEMAntonio Williams 5 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:08DUKEQue'Sean Brown 19 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDarian Mensah 27/41, 361 YDS, 4 TD
- RushNate Sheppard 13 CAR, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCooper Barkate 6 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCade Klubnik 27/36, 385 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAdam Randall 16 CAR, 89 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAntonio Williams 10 REC, 142 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCLEM up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:40DUKE +93%
Nate Sheppard 3 Yd Run (Darian Mensah Pass to Sahmir Hagans for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 0:38CLEM +58%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass incomplete short left to #0 A.Williams thrown to CLEM28 PENALTY CLEM Pass Interference (#1 T.Moore) 12 yards from CLEM25 to CLEM13.…
- Q4 10:28CLEM +41%
T.J. Moore 75 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Nolan Hauser Kick)
- Q1 13:04DUKE +33%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Randall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CLEM28 (#8 D.Stone; #34 L.Mergott)
- Q4 10:40DUKE +28%
#29 T.Pelino field goal attempt from 37 yards GOOD
- Q3 8:13DUKE +22%
Sahmir Hagans 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Todd Pelino Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Duke vs. Clemson?
Duke 46, Clemson 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CLEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| DUKE | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 439 | Total yards | 560 |
| 361 | Passing yards | 385 |
| 78 | Rushing yards | 175 |
| 21 | First downs | 28 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 5-5 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 27/42 | Comp/Att | 27/36 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 10.7 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-62 | Penalties | 8-87 |
| 25:34 | Possession | 34:26 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:14 CLEM field goal on 4th & 4 at DUKE 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.34 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:40DUKENate Sheppard 3 Yd Run (Darian Mensah Pass to Sahmir Hagans for Two-Point Conversion)46–45
- Q4 10:28CLEMT.J. Moore 75 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Nolan Hauser Kick)38–45
- Q4 10:40DUKETodd Pelino 37 Yd Field Goal38–38
- Q3 0:14CLEMNolan Hauser 22 Yd Field Goal35–38
- Q3 8:13DUKESahmir Hagans 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Todd Pelino Kick)35–35
- Q3 8:25CLEMPeter Woods 1 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick)28–35
- Q2 0:11DUKEQue'Sean Brown 43 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)28–28
- Q2 1:01CLEMAdam Randall 2 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick)21–28
- Q2 5:49CLEMAdam Randall 2 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick)21–21
- Q2 10:26CLEMAntonio Williams 4 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Nolan Hauser Kick)21–14
- Q1 0:05DUKEAndrel Anthony 20 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)21–7
- Q1 5:33DUKECooper Barkate 77 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)14–7
- Q1 6:25CLEMAntonio Williams 5 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:08DUKEQue'Sean Brown 19 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLEM Elo 1708, DUKE Elo 1622 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLEM -5.8 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesClemson leads 37–18–1 · Duke has won 2 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| DUKE | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.4 (#60) | CORE overall | +4.9 (#56) |
| +9 / +7 | offense / defense | +2 / -3 |
| 3.04 | points / drive | 2.25 |
| 2.85 | allowed / drive | 1.84 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →